College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/29/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 47.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Neither of these teams are playing well this season. Navy has started the year 1-6, and Tulsa has faired slightly better, but they are also just 3-4 on the year. Both teams have been let down by their defense most of the season; Navy is allowing 31.86 points per game, while Tulsa is allowing 32.43 points per game.
Navy has had five of their seven games go over the 47.5-point total, while Tulsa has had six of their seven games go over the 47.5-point total. Neither defense is likely to shut down the opposing offense in this game, and therefore, we project a final score of 32.85-24.43 in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.
Our model gives a 75.37% chance of the over cashing, making this a five-star betting opportunity for Friday night.
Nevada -20.5: 3 Stars out of 5
UNLV has had a difficult season...they're 0-7. The winless start gives the Rebels a 13-game losing streak, as they went winless during the 2020 COVID shortened season as well.
The Rebels face a tough opponent in Nevada this Friday. The Wolf Pack are a 5-2 that includes a road Power 5 victory over California and a road victory over Boise State in Idaho. Nevada has a good offensive team, averaging 35.71 points per game, so they are more than capable of winning by a large margin.
Our model gives Nevada a 96.1% chance to win outright and a 62.29% chance to cover the 20.5-point betting line. We project the Wolfpack to win by a final score of 42.58-18.69.