College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 9/30/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

Miami (FL) -5.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Over 62.5: 1 Star out of 5

Both of these teams are off to 2-2 starts, although each has benefitted from a win against an FCS opponent to achieve these records.

Virginia started off the season with wins over William and Mary (FCS) and Illinois, but they followed it up with 20-point losses to North Carolina and Wake Forest. Miami took a 31-point beating at the hands of Alabama and lost by 21 to Michigan State. But they beat Appalachian State by two and blew out Central Connecticut (FCS).

Miami is returning 10 starters on offense from last season, while Virginia is returning just 6 defensive starters, so the Hurricanes should be able to put up points. On the other side, Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong is having an amazing campaign with 1,705 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions through his first four games.

Our model loves Miami in this one, projecting them to win by a final score of 37.29-25.80. We give the Hurricanes a 66.7% chance to cover as 5.5-point favorites. We also like the over, giving it a 53.1% chance to hit.