College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/21/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Xavier -4.5 (-115)
Given that Xavier is at home, it's pretty easy to get behind backing the Musketeers to cover as 4.5-point favorites.
Xavier has covered in each of their last two home games and in three of their past four games overall. In their last four home games in which they were favored by 5.0 or fewer points, Xavier is 3-1 against the spread (ATS). They won at Villanova by eight points on January 7th.
As for the Wildcats, they're just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 outings, including 2-4 ATS in their past six road affairs.
Our model has Xavier winning by 7.6 points and gives them a 59.2% chance to cover. Barttorvik projects the Musketeers to win by 10.1 points. Getting them at -4.5 is a nice deal.
Kansas State Moneyline (+108)
The Bears are a slim favorite, priced at -130 on the moneyline, but there are reasons to think the Wildcats should be the slim favorite.
Most ratings systems have these two teams fairly close to each other. Our numbers slot Baylor 13th and Kansas State 24th. Barttorvik (11th vs. 22nd) and KenPom (14th vs. 24th) mostly fall in line with that, so once you factor in the homecourt advantage, the underdog 'Cats become pretty enticing.
Kansas State has been really good at home. They're 7-1 ATS over their past eight home games and 11-4 ATS at home overall. They're 14-1 straight up at home.
Baylor hasn't been all that great on the road, going 4-4 straight up in the split. The Bears have covered in just three of their eight road matchups.
On top of all that, Kansas State beat Baylor by two points in overtime in Waco earlier this season.
Our projections have the Wildcats winning this game 61.3% of the time. Barttorvik forecasts Kansas State to win 55% of the time.
If you'd rather play it safe and take Kansas State to cover as a 1.5-point 'dog, that works, too. We give them a 62.7% chance to cover.
San Diego State -10.5 (-110)
The Aztecs are clearly the better squad, with nERD ranking them 16th, compared to the Rams' ranking of 109th. Barttorvik has San Diego State and Colorado State ranked 9th and 112th, respectively. KenPom puts San Diego State 17th and the Rams 108th.
So, yeah, it's easy to see why the Aztecs are a double-digit favorite despite needing overtime to record a six-point win at Colorado State in their first meeting.
The Aztecs have been a cover machine lately, posting a 7-2 ATS mark over their past nine, including covering in four consecutive home games. They are 26th in offense and 9th in defense, per Barttorvik, and their 26th-ranked offense should feast on a Rams defense that checks in 210th.
Colorado State, meanwhile, has covered only three times in their past eight contests. They have failed to cover in each of their last three games in which they were an underdog of at least 8.0 points.
Our projections have San Diego State winning by 13.5, and Barttorvik has the gap at 15.1 points. We think the Aztecs cover 59.0% of the time.