NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Game Previews and Win Probabilities, Presented by GMC
The first two rounds of the men's NCAA Tournament sure had it all.
We saw plenty of upsets, we saw close games, and we saw some downright down-to-the-wire nail-biters.
Now that we're down to the Sweet 16, we've got some chalk left -- but a lot of high seeds as well.
Here's what you should know about each matchup and how numberFire's algorithm views each game to go.
And of course, remember to get those picks in for the GMC Mountain Climber Pick 'Em contest for your chance at $20,000 in prizes. And don't forget to reserve your Sierra.
Gonzaga (1) vs. Arkansas (4)
How They Advanced
The chalk rolled on in the West region with the 1 through 4 seeds remaining.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs overcame a tough push from the Georgia State Panthers in the Round of 64 to win 93-72 and then fended off a strong Memphis Tigers team 82-78. Gonzaga, thus far, ranks third in the NCAA Tournament in adjusted offensive efficiency, via BartTorvik, but just 51st in adjusted defense.
Arkansas earned two narrow wins: 75-71 over the Vermont Catamounts and 53-48 over the New Mexico State Aggies. Their stout defense has remained (they were 12th on the full season in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 7th through two NCAA Tournament games), yet their offense remains a little iffy for a Sweet 16 team.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Gonzaga Bulldogs an 87.0% chance to advance.
Villanova (2) vs. Michigan (11)
How They Advanced
Villanova won their first two games by a combined 30 points (including a 10-point win over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Round of 32). They have a top-four adjusted tournament offense and an average adjusted defense through two matchups. They've stuck to their slow pace (61st among tournament teams) and have a top-10 offensive rebounding rate.
The Michigan Wolverines fought back against Colorado State Rams to end up winning by 8 points in the Round of 64 and then knocked off the Tennessee Volunteers 76-68 in the Round of 32. Michigan will need to work on the turnovers (56th in turnover rate in the tournament) and continue to cash in on efficient shooting (6th in effective field goal percentage) and defensive rebounding (1st).
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Villanova Wildcats a 74.1% chance to advance.
Duke (2) vs. Texas Tech (3)
How They Advanced
In Mike Krzyzewski's final NCAA Tournament, he has the Duke Blue Devils playing some great basketball. Their wins have been by 17 and 9 thus far, and they're operating with the best adjusted offense among all teams while leading in effective field goal percentage, as well.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders' defense will have something to say about that. They're eighth in the tournament in adjusted defensive efficiency and finished the regular season ranked first in that metric. The Red Raiders have allowed just 62 and 53 points in two games so far.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Texas Tech Red Raiders a 52.2% chance to advance, so consider fading Duke in the GMC Mountain Climber Pick 'Em.
Arizona (1) vs. Houston (5)
How They Advanced
It took overtime for the Arizona Wildcats to knock off the Texas Christian Horned Frogs, but the 1 seed in the South Region is still dancing. Despite the 10th-best effective field goal percentage in the tournament, they're 31st in adjusted offense, and a 22.2% turnover rate can help explain that. They were basically NCAA average in that stat entering the tournament, which isn't particularly good for a Sweet 16 team.
The Houston Cougars look pretty dominant despite their injury issues. Houston is 7th in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense in the tournament thus far and have generated the 7th-highest turnover rate. Their disruptive defense will be a key to watch out for in this matchup.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Arizona Wildcats a 56.6% chance to advance, narrower than we might have thought based on the seed differential.
Purdue (3) vs. Saint Peter's (15)
How They Advanced
The Purdue Boilermakers entered the NCAA Tournament on quite a cold note but figured things out so far and dominated Yale Elis (78-56) and beat Texas (81-71). Through two games, they are getting to the free-throw line and converting at the best rate in the tournament. The top-ranked offense this season, Purdue is eighth through two NCAA Tournament games in that department.
One of the (many) surprise teams remaining, the Saint Peter's Peacocks have done it with a balanced approach (21st in offense and 19th in defense). They knocked off the Kentucky Wildcats 85-79 in the Round of 64 and then the Murray State Racers 70-60 in the Round of 32.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Purdue Boilermakers a 94.5% chance to advance, making them the most likely team to win this round.
Kansas (1) vs. Providence (4)
How They Advanced
The chalky Kansas Jayhawks rocked the Texas Southern Tigers 83-56 in the opening round of the tournament and then used a late-game surge to hold off a feisty Creighton Bluejays team (79-72). Kansas ranks just 15th in adjusted offense in the tournament but have played some strong defense (4th-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed) and have dominated the glass.
The Providence Friars have put the clamps down defensively and rank 5th in adjusted defense through two tournament games while also sitting 5th in defensive rebounding rate and 57th in adjusted tempo. That's a recipe for some upsets: good defense and fewer possessions. This is all while offering some great three-point shooting (45.5%), up from 35.0% entering the tournament.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Kansas Jayhawks an 85.3% chance to advance.
UCLA (4) vs. North Carolina (8)
How They Advanced
The UCLA Bruins wound up with just a 4-point win over the Akron Zips in the Round of 64 but then blasted Saint Mary's 72-56 the following round. The most impressive aspect of their offense right now is a 12.2% turnover rate (10th-best so far in the tournament and lower than their elite 13.3% rate [5th-best] entering the tournament).
That turnover rate could be a key here, as the North Carolina Tar Heels ranked 346th in the nation in turnover rate generated and are still just 55th in the NCAA Tournament thus far. They get by on elite offense (2nd in the tournament and 20th entering the tournament).
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the UCLA Bruins a 73.9% chance to advance, fifth-best among these eight games.
Miami (10) vs. Iowa State (11)
How They Advanced
The battle of the double-digit seeds will end the Sweet 16 action this week.
Miami was able to beat the USC Trojans by just 2 points in the opening round but wound up dominating the Auburn Tigers 79-61 in the Round of 32. They are operating with the 11th-best adjusted tournament defense and have not been careless with the ball. They have a 5.0% turnover rate (best in the tournament) and have turned over opponents at a 22.0% clip (ninth-best). They have had the worst offensive rebounding rate and three-point field goal percentage in the tournament so far. They aren't particularly adept at either of those skills, so that could continue. It's been quite the run.
The Iowa State Cyclones have a strength: defense. Particularly, they are fourth in the nation in turnover rate generated (24.7%) and have led the NCAA Tournament in that stat so far (27.3%). It'll be strength on strength in that regard. Iowa State has two wins in the tournament (naturally) despite not breaking 60 points in a game yet. They're 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the tournament.
Odds to Reach the Elite 8
numberFire's model gives the Iowa State Cyclones a 57.1% chance to advance, so the model prefers the higher seed in this matchup.
