College Basketball Betting Guide for Monday 3/7/22: 3 Conference Tournament Games to Target
March Madness is on its way, and conference tournaments are starting up all across the country.
Tonight, we see tournament action in the CAA, Summit League, Horizon League, Sun Belt, and West Coast Conference.
Which games should draw our attention? Let's find out.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs. Towson Tigers
The Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens and Towson Tigers go toe to toe in the first game on tonight's slate, and numberFire's model sees value in taking the over (136.5 total on NCAAB odds) in this CAA semifinal.
For starters, these teams rate well offensively. According to BartTorvik.com, Delaware is 88th in adjusted offense while Towson ranks 51st. Both teams are also top-75 in effective field goal percentage and top-75 in three-point percentage.
Additionally, neither team has a top-100 adjusted defense, with Delaware particularly struggling in this department, sitting way back at 231st.
Towson should also have an easier time cashing in on second-chance points. They rank 9th in offensive rebounding rate, whereas Delaware is 291st in defensive rebounding rate.
Although these teams failed to clear 136.5 points in each of their prior two meetings this season, that was due in part to uncharacteristically poor three-point shooting. The Blue Hens went an abysmal 5-26 from three-point range in their first game, and both teams shot below their season averages from deep in the second matchup.
Should these teams play up to their usual offensive standards, they have a great chance of exceeding the total this time around. Our model rates the over as a two-star wager.
South Dakota Coyotes vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Much like the above game, the over looks like the play in this Summit League semifinal.
The South Dakota Coyotes and South Dakota State Jackrabbits aren't exactly known for their defense, with both squads ranking well outside the top-200 in adjusted defense.
On the other hand, they fare much better offensively. The Jackrabbits are one of the top offenses in the country, ranking 14th in adjusted offense, 1st in effective field goal percentage, and 1st in three-point percentage.
While the Coyotes can't quite hang with those marks, they're hardly slouches on offense, ranking 126th in adjusted offense, 87th in effective field goal percentage, and 18th in three-point percentage.
The over/under is set at 153.0 tonight on FanDuel Sportsbook. The teams just missed exceeding this mark in their first game (149 points) and blew it out of the water in their most recent contest (168).
numberFire's model pegs the over as a one-star play tonight.
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
The San Francisco Dons face an uphill battle in their West Coast Conference semifinal matchup, taking on a Gonzaga Bulldogs squad that's expected to be the top overall seed in this year's NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga ranks first in our power rankings and is the highest-rated team on both BartTorvik and KenPom. They're juggernauts in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense, boasting top-five marks in each category, per BartTorvik.
The Bulldogs bested the Dons by 16 points in both of their prior meetings this season, and NCAAB odds sees them as 14.0-point favorites tonight.
While none of that sounds great for San Francisco, our model likes their chances of covering tonight.
Despite the lopsided losses to the Bulldogs, the Dons aren't exactly pushovers, ranking 22nd in our power rankings. They're a solid all-around team, rating as a top-20 adjusted defense and top-40 adjusted offense.
Although it's hard to see the Dons pulling off the upset, numberFire's model gives them a 73.07% chance of covering, and it rates as one of the top bets of the evening.
Our model also likes the under, giving this game a 60.25% shot of finishing below 154.0 points. One of the previous two meetings fell below this mark, and keep in mind that both teams are strong defensively.