NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 3/11/13
I'm going to guess Brandon Knight has a case of the Mondays after DeAndre Jordan's near decapitation last night. But you don't have to join him down in the dumps, and you have the power of Math! to thank.
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The Best of the Best
Kevin Durant - Here's a dirty little secret: yes, the Spurs are old and defensively-minded, but they still run the seventh-quickest pace in the NBA. When combined with Oklahoma City's own eighth-quickest pace, there should be plenty of points scored in the Battle for the West tonight. San Antonio's main weakness lies with rebounding, as their offensive rebound percentage sits 30th in the NBA. Durant has less than eight rebounds only once in his past eight games, and tonight should extend that to one in nine.
Russell Westbrook - We usually don't like Westbook; he's not the most efficient piece of the Thunder scoring assembly line. But despite his inefficiencies, there's no denying his points-scoring ability when faced with a solid matchup. Well, I'd say a Tony Parker-less Spurs team counts, right? Replacement Spurs starter Cory Joseph has averaged a 104 defensive rating in limited time over two seasons, and just last game, he gave up 35 points and 9 assists to a similar type point guard in Damian Lillard.
Al Jefferson - Here is what the Pistons rank in defensive rebound percentage: 22nd. Here is Al Jefferson's total rebound percentage: 16.7 percent. Here is the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) the Pistons have allowed to opposing centers this season: .515. Here is me proclaiming that Jefferson's value is low since coming off of injury and playing poorly against the Knicks on Saturday. Here are the Lakers streaking, making tonight a must win for Utah. Here am I running to pick up Jefferson tonight.
Top Mid-Range Values
Tyson Chandler - Just about a week and a half ago, David Lee's interior defense was absolutely murdered by the stat minds at the Sloan/MIT Sports Analytics Conference. It was with good reason; opposing centers are shooting .530 eFG% against the Warriors this season. Now, coming into town is Tyson Chandler, who by the way, has a 134 offensive rating that is still on pace for the All-Time Record. This could get ugly; if Lee doesn't play (currently questionable), it could get even worse.
Jarrett Jack - It seems like some platforms forget that he actually gets significant minutes: he's near the top value today on Fan Duel, and he blows everybody else out of the San Francisco Bay on Draft Kings. Playing the Knicks should do for his production quite nicely, especially consider Raymond Felton's 108 and J.R. Smith's 109 defensive rating. Considering that he has played at least 27 minutes in each of his past five contests, I wouldn't worry about the playing time, either.
Kevin Martin - I wouldn't worry too much about Martin going up against Danny Green. Green has played roughly 60 percent of his minutes at shooting guard this season; he's allowed opposing SGs to shoot .501 eFG% against him while opposing SFs only shoot .451 eFG%. He can't stick with the perimeter guys, which is exactly what Martin is. After a small slump, it's safe to say Martin is back. He's now scored in double digits in each of his past five games.