NBA Player Prop Bets to Target: Celtics at Heat (Game 4)
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
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Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Gabe Vincent Under 12.5 Points (-125)
Gabe Vincent has been outstanding in the postseason, and he's coming off one of the best nights of his career in a 29-point outburst in Game 3.
But I like the under on his points prop today.
Vincent is shooting 38.0% from three in the playoffs and taking 10.9 shots per game via a 19.0% usage rate. Those are all up from what he did during the regular season. In the regular season, Vincent sunk 33.4% of his shots from deep and took 8.3 shots per night on a 17.5% usage rate.
He's been particularly lights out versus the Boston Celtics, making 55.6% of his threes en route to 17.7 points per night. That just can't last.
Even with the silly-good shooting numbers in this series and the uptick in production in the postseason as a whole, Vincent is netting just 12.9 points per game. He's definitely getting huge minutes -- at least 35 in all three games against Boston -- but he likely needs to keep up his red-hot shooting to get to 13-plus points. I'm betting against that happening, and our model is, too, projecting Vincent for 11.6 points.
Malcolm Brogdon Over 1.5 Made Threes (-160)
Malcolm Brogdon has been cold the last two games (1 for 8 from three), but I'm jumping at the chance to take the over with his three-point prop at 1.5.
During this season's playoffs, Brogdon is averaging 2.1 made threes per night on 5.1 attempts from beyond the arc. That's mostly backed up by his regular-season averages of 2.0 makes on 4.4 three-point shots per game, and his postseason three-point percentage of 40.7% is actually down a bit from his 44.4% clip from the regular season.
In the regular season, the Miami Heat allowed the second-highest three-point attempt rate (43.0%). That's one of the few things from Miami's regular season that has carried over into the postseason as the Heat are permitting the third-highest three-point attempt rate in the playoffs (43.7%). Boston, on the other hand, took the second-most threes per night in the regular season (42.6).
Before the past two games, Brogdon had hit multiple threes in seven of his last eight outings. I think he gets back on track in a must-win Game 4.