3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/23/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+370)
The Houston Astros exploded for 12 runs last night, and that isn't out of the question again tonight.
A 4.97 implied run total for the Astros puts them among the highest on the slate and a great spot to look for player props. They will be taking on Colin Rea, who has been up and down from the minors for the Milwaukee Brewers while serving as a starter and a reliever.
To this point in the season, Rea has allowed a .396 SLG, 5.12 xFIP, 1.93 HR/9, 11.7% walk rate, 45.0% fly-ball rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. He's simply not good, and with the Brewers having a bottom-five bullpen, we should see plenty of runs tonight.
This brings us to Kyle Tucker, who comes in with a 111 wRC+, 181 ISO, .331 wOBA, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He also comes in among the top 90th percentile or higher in xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA, according to BaseballSavant.
He has a good matchup, good odds, and good underlying metrics. Of course, I'll look to add Tucker To Record an RBI (+100).
MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
The Washington Nationals will have MacKenzie Gore on the mound tonight, and he has a strikeout prop worth considering.
Gore is a promising young pitcher and is starting to truly show it off with a 29.0% strikeout rate, 12.7% swinging-strike rate, and 28.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). The pieces are starting to come together for Gore, who has been over this 5.5 mark in seven of his nine starts this season. We also see him in 93-plus pitches in eight of his nine starts, showing there's no issue for him getting deep into the game.
On a game-by-game basis, Gore has pushed his strikeout rate to 33% or higher three separate times -- a strong sign of his potential ceiling.
The San Diego Padres come in with a 22.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league. However, since the start of May, that rate has bumped up to 25.0%, which is the seventh-worst in the league during that time. The Padres are struggling a bit at the plate, and this is the chance for Gore to pile up the strikeouts.
Jorge Soler To Record an RBI (-115)
A game at Coors Field is always a great spot to look for some hitter props.
Things can be simple when it comes to MLB player props. We have the best hitter's park in the league, we have a great hitter, and we have solid odds for an RBI. The Miami Marlins have a slate-hight 5.74 implied run total and are set to take on Austin Gomber, which presents a very favorable matchup for Jorge Soler.
This season, Gomber has a .360 wOBA, .504 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 15.0% strikeout rate, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. While at home in this split, those numbers are even worse. This is truly a juicy matchup for some offense tonight.
We turn to Soler, who is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 320 wRC+, .646 wOBA, .719 ISO, .333 BABIP 64.0% fly-ball rate, and 56.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. These are video-game-type numbers for Soler, and it has to be my favorite prop of the day.
