NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/29/23: Can the Suns Snap the Timberwolves' Streak?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets
Over 229.0 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (-620)
The Houston Rockets are comfortably in the bottom three of the NBA standings overall, so their lottery odds are pretty set. With that being said, they aren't flipping the switch and starting to win: they've lost six straight games and are 3-7 in their past 10.
The Nets hold the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and are a half-game up on the Miami Heat, meaning they're a half-game above the play-in.
It's no surprise, then that they're heavy favorites in this game as 11.0-point favorites. My model thinks that spread is a bit large, though numberFire's algorithm does like it as a one-star (i.e. one-unit) recommendation.
What I prefer is the over (229.0), thanks -- primarily -- to two subpar defenses. Since the All-Star break, each team has an adjusted defensive rating of 123.5 or higher.
numberFire's algorithm likes the over as a one-star play, too.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (-168)
This isn't as big of a game for the Grizzlies as it is for the Los Angeles Clippers.
Memphis is three games behind the Denver Nuggets for the 1 seed but is three games ahead of the Sacramento Kings for the 2 seed in the Western Conference. numberFire's model has their odds to stay at the 2 seed as 92.2%.
The Clippers, though, are the 5 seed in the West and are just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the 4 seed. They're also a half-game ahead of the Golden State Warriors, who are the 6 seed. numberFire's sims have the odds the Clippers are the 4 through 8 seed between 10.8% to 24.7%, so they can slide all around the ranks.
But they're going to be without Paul George, and that's enough to presume a win for the Grizzlies.
Memphis' relevant net rating for this game, based on their current rotation, is +9.2. The Clippers' is +2.7.
numberFire loves the Grizzlies' moneyline as a three-star play. I'm not as high, but targeting their side makes a lot of sense.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-200)
Phoenix Suns -5.0 (-110)
Under 235.0 (-110)
I'm seeing value in all three of the main bet types in this co-nightcap matchup between the Suns and the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is within striking distance (a half-game) of emerging from the play-in and into the 6 seed. The Suns need a win to stay in the 4 seed and hold an edge over the Clippers and the teams nipping at their heels.
While the Timberwolves have won four straight games, they all were within six points (with an average point differential of 3.5 points. Adjusting for opponents, my model actually thinks they underperformed in this sample.
As for the Suns, they're looking to continue righting the ship and may get Kevin Durant back tonight. They had snapped a three-game losing streak with a win against the Orlando Magic on the 16th and then hit another three-game skid. They've since won two straight, beating the Philadelphia 76ers by 20 and the Utah Jazz by 14.
My model suggests the spread should be 7.9 points instead of 5.0; numberFire's algorithm predicts a 6.9-point win for the Suns over the long-term.
The relevant offensive and defensive ratings for tonight's game are largely average, and the total is inflated as a result, so the under is also engaging.