3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/22/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mike Conley Over 5.5 Assists (-140)
Mike Conley can take advantage of a nice matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. Over the past 15 games, Atlanta is 26th in defensive rating and first in pace, making them a super over-friendly matchup.
Conley played the Hawks not that long ago, tallying six dimes on March 13th. The Minnesota Timberwolves racked up 136 points in that one, and this game has a juicy 241.5-point total, the highest of the night.
The veteran guard is averaging 7.1 assists per night for the season. While Conley's assists numbers are down since coming to the Timberwolves, he is still averaging 5.8 assists per game over his past six contests, and with Karl-Anthony Towns returning tonight, Conley will have another weapon at his disposal.
We project Conley to amass 6.8 assists.
Luka Doncic to Record a Triple-Double (+650)
Another over-friendly environment tonight is the Dallas Mavericks' home game against the Golden State Warriors, a clash that has a 236.5-point total and 1.0-point spread.
Targeting Luka Doncic to notch a triple-double is my favorite way to take advantage of it.
The Dubs (6th in pace over the past 15) are a big pace-up spot for the Mavs (19th). The Warriors are 28th in road defensive rating for the year and have permitted at least 121 points in five of their previous six road games. Over the last 30 games, Golden State has surrendered the fourth-most assists per night to point guards (9.3).
Luka has been upgraded to probable and could cook tonight, especially if Kyrie Irving -- who is questionable after aggravating his foot injury in Dallas' last game -- is ruled out. But even with our model accounting for Kyrie playing (as of now), we have Doncic projected for 29.1 points, 8.8 boards and 8.9 assists.
I think Luka has a better chance to record a triple-double than this +650 number suggests. If you'd prefer something safer, you can turn to Luka to go over 7.5 rebounds (-140).
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 Made Threes (+105)
The Milwaukee Bucks are probably going to maul the San Antonio Spurs, and this bet is somewhat reliant on that happening.
Milwaukee is a laughable 17.5-point favorite versus the Spurs. This is the second leg of a road back-to-back for San Antonio after they got slaughtered 119-84 last night by the New Orleans Pelicans. If thise one gets ugly, Giannis Antetokounmpo may see limited minutes. He hasn't played more than 30 minutes in the past four Bucks games that were decided by 19-plus points.
But there's a chance this bet hits even if Giannis gets his usual run. While the Spurs are very bad right now, they've been pretty good all year at preventing three-point shots. That's held true lately even as they've taken their tanking up a few notches, with the Spurs giving up the second-lowest three-point attempt rate across the past 15 games (34.0%).
Giannis has made a triple in only three of his past 10 games, taking just 16 threes in that time and jacking up one or fewer threes in half of those 10 games.