NBA Betting Guide for Monday 3/13/23: Accounting for Playoff Implications

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons

Under 226.0 (-110)

A game with virtually no playoff implications, this Indiana Pacers versus Detroit Pistons matchup comes with a tight 2.5-point spread in favor of the visiting Indiana side.

Indiana is, though, going to be without Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell, and Bennedict Mathurin. They're listing Buddy Hield as questionable.

For the Pistons, well, their roster is depleted, and that includes Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley III, Isaiah Stewart, Alec Burks, and Hamidou Diallo. So, yeah, this one is going to be weird.

We can't look at a game like this an automatically assume bad offense and therefore an under. Usually, in situations like this, defenses get worse, too.

But specifically in this case, there are so many injuries that my model is anticipating a total of only 219.3.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (-210)
Atlanta Hawks -5.0 (-114)

For the Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert is questionable, and that can cause some wrinkles in this game.

However, even with him expected to play in my model, there is value on the Hawks to win -- and also to cover.

Accounting for health on both sides, my model sees the Hawks favored by 8.1 rather than 5.0 and are thus a good pick to cover. There's room for that to shift if Gobert sits, too.

Either way, Atlanta should pick up a win here at home, where they are 18-14 with an adjusted net rating of +3.1.

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)

The Suns are going to have to play the Golden State Warriors on the road without Kevin Durant, but it's pretty notable that the spread is somewhat light at 4.5 points.

In games with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton but without Durant and key traded players, the Suns are still 13-9 with a non-garbage-time net rating of +5.1.

The Warriors themselves are still without Andrew Wiggins, and with him off the floor but in games with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, Golden State is 18-18 with a non-garbage net rating of -1.9.

Factoring in home-court advantage, my model still thinks the Warriors should be favored -- but only by 1.7.