NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/9/23: Can We Trust the Big Favorites to Win?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
2-Team Moneyline Parlay
Indiana Pacers (-420) and Milwaukee Bucks (-670)
Parlay Odds: -237
There isn't a lot that jumps out on tonight's smaller slate, and I'm not going to force things that aren't there.
But the Pacers are hosting the Houston Rockets as 9.0-point home favorites.
The Bucks are welcoming the thinned-out Brooklyn Nets and are favored by 12.0 over Brooklyn.
Those are pretty big spreads, spreads that my model does see slight value on but that are far from home-run suggestions. Instead, given that the model likes those numbers, it stands to reason that the moneylines are something to examine closer, too.
Based on my model's expected win odds, I'd anticipate the odds for a two-team parlay to be -301.
Again, I think both spreads are in play, but outright wins for the home teams are logical, too.
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic
Under 234.0 (-110)
Both Jordan Clarkson and Walker Kessler are questionable for the Utah Jazz. As for the Orlando Magic, they'll be without Wendell Carter Jr.
So, this one could be a bit different depending on how healthy the Jazz are by tip-off.
That being said, whether Clarkson and Kessler play, my model likes the under (234.0) -- it's just a matter of how much.
It's projecting a total of 232.5 with them (so, a smaller-unit option with them) and a total of 229.3 without them (giving us more room and making the bet a more confident one).
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
Under 235.5 (-110)
These two teams have a lot of notes, specifically the Memphis Grizzlies, who are without Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke for myriad reasons.
The visiting Golden State Warriors are down Andrew Wiggins again -- and they're on the road. Golden State's scoring average falls from 119.4 at home to 116.8 on the road.
Memphis, in games with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. but without Morant, have averaged 113.2 points and are 2-4 in terms of the over.
Memphis is still a pretty solid team overall with Morant off the floor (around an NBA-average squad by net rating), so they can be competitive, and that takes the spread and moneyline out of play for me.
However, their offense takes too much of a step back, and thus, this game is destined for an under, according to the data.