3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 3/9/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jordan Poole Over 17.5 Points (-114)
While Jordan Poole has netted just 10 and 11 points in the two games since Stephen Curry returned, there are reasons to back the over on his points prop.
With Curry on the floor, Poole's usage falls, but he's still scoring 17.6 points per night in the split, according to CourtIQ. Despite the down scoring nights in the last two, Poole got plenty of run, playing 31.5 and 28.3 minutes, and he hoisted 17 treys across the two outings. Those are positive signs.
Poole will see the Memphis Grizzlies today, and he has scored 32 and 21 points in his two clashes with them this year, with Steph playing in the 21-point game. He also averaged 17.8 points versus the Grizzlies in last year's six-game playoff series.
Our model has Poole scoring 18.9 points tonight.
Julius Randle Under 3.5 Made Threes (-111)
The Sacramento Kings have been a tough matchup for threes this season, and that puts me on this under.
For the year, the Kings have allowed the 10th-fewest three-point attempts per game to power forwards (6.3).
Julius Randle isn't your average power forward. He's taken at least eight three-point attempts in eight straight games, but he's made four-plus threes in only 7 of his previous 17 games. He went 3 for 11 from deep in the only other meeting between these two teams this campaign.
We project Randle to go 2.5 of 7.6 from three in this one. The under is the side to be on.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Threes (+112)
We should get an absolute track meet tonight in Indy as the Indiana Pacers host the Houston Rockets.
Over the last 15 games, both sides are in the bottom four in defensive rating. The over/under is set at 236.5 points. It's going to be an over-friendly environment, and while most of the prop lines reflect that, I think there's some value on Myles Turner's made threes prop.
Houston has ceded a crap ton of threes all year long, and it's been no different of late as they've permitted the third-highest three-point attempt rate over the past 15 games (44.9%).
Minutes shouldn't be an issue tonight. Turner has played at least 26 minutes in seven of the last eight games, and his defensive presence will be needed against Alperen Sengun.
We project Turner to make 1.7 threes on 4.8 tries. That's obviously under the two made threes we need for this to cash, but the over has a better chance than the pricing on this line -- +112 on the over and -142 price on the under -- indicates.