3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/8/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-120)
Our model likes Al Horford tonight in a home date with the Portland Trail Blazers, and I think this is a good way to take advantage of it.
Horford is occupying the center position for the Boston Celtics with Robert Williams sidelined. Over the last seven games, the Blazers are giving up the fifth-most assists per night to the position (5.2).
Horford has gone for at least three assists in four of his last six games, including three straight. In his first game sans Williams, he tallied six assists, although he was aided by getting to play an overtime session. He's also a safe bet for big minutes, playing at least 32 in five of the last six games.
Our model projects Horford to rack up 3.0 assists. You can also target the over on his rebound prop, which is set at 6.5 (-118). We have him pulling down 7.5 boards.
Kyrie Irving Under 27.5 Points (-115)
Kyrie Irving is actually scoring more points per game with the Dallas Mavericks (27.6) than he did with the Brooklyn Nets (27.1), but he's taking 1.8 fewer shots per game since the trade and has seen his usage rate drop 1.9 percentage points.
He's scoring more thanks to some likely unsustainable shooting percentages.
In 10 games with Dallas, Kyrie is making 59.5% of his twos and 42.1% of his threes. Those clips were at 56.5% and 37.4%, respectively, this year with Brooklyn. Irving is obviously a remarkably skilled player, but he's unlikely to keep shooting this well.
Even with the hot shooting, Kyrie is barely over this line in his time with Dallas, scoring 27.6 points per night.
He's up against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. He's dropped in 15 and 19 points in two meetings with the Pels this year, although both came prior to his move to Dallas.
We have Kyrie scoring 25.1 points tonight, well under this line.
OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds (+112)
This is a plus-money prop I can get behind.
OG Anunoby's rebounding numbers have been down lately. He's snagged five-plus boards only twice in his last 10 games, but I think he can break that trend tonight.
He'll battle the Los Angeles Clippers, a team that's giving up the fourth-most rebounds per game to small forwards over the past seven games (8.9).
While OG's rebounding totals have sagged, he's still averaging 5.2 boards per night for the season. Prior to this recent down stretch, he'd recorded at least five rebounds in 7 of 11 games.
Our algorithm has Anunoby projected for 5.0 rebounds today, and he's got a better chance of cashing this over than the +112 price implies.