NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/23/23: Can the Warriors Cover Against the New-Look Lakers' Lineup?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
Warriors +6.0 (-112) - 4 Stars
The unofficial second half of the NBA starts tonight, and we're looking out west with the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Golden State Warriors.
Our NBA algorithm loves the Warriors with the points tonight, giving it a four-star rating. The Lakers have struggled this season against the spread to the tune of a 26-30-3 record -- good for a bottom-10 mark in the league.
While the Warriors are without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, they should be able to put up points since the Lakers sit at 18th in defensive rating this season. The Lakers also aren't anything to write home about on offense with a team offensive rating sitting at 20th this season.
The Warriors aren't at full strength, but the matchup and the points are too good to pass up against a Lakers roster that has struggled on both sides of the ball this season. Swapping in a few pieces likely doesn't make this transformative of a difference.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Under 239.5 (-108) - 4 Stars
They say everything is bigger in Texas, which makes sense when we see a slate-high 14.0-point spread in favor of the Dallas Mavericks hosting the San Antonio Spurs. While the spread might be huge, we're here for under 239.5 points tonight.
It's another four-star rating from the algorithm tonight. To say the Spurs are struggling on offense this season would be putting things lightly. To this point in the year, the Spurs have a 109.7 offensive rating, which is the third-worst in the league.
It also has to be noted that the Spurs are dead last in the league when it comes to defensive rating (119.8) this season. They are among the worst teams in the league as the 14.0-point spread would indicate.
The blowout factor is real in this one. If the Mavericks get so far out ahead, they will likely pull their starters, giving them no reason to push the pace on offense. All of this should lead to a slower, modest offensive game with reserves in the lineup.
Our model gives the under a 67.5% chance to hit in Big D.
