NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/16/23: Backing a Pair of Home Squads Before the Break
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Note: All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
Bulls +8.0 (-110) - 3 Stars
Under 229.5 (-110) - 3 Stars
This number has a sizable injury baked into it, but it's not really that sizable of an injury on paper.
DeMar DeRozan missed Wednesday's game with a thigh injury, and he's likely questionable at best for tonight. DeRozan is an excellent player, but the Bulls just haven't been all that different this year with him off their court. Their -0.9 net rating with DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic on the floor becomes just -1.3 when subtracting DeMar.
The Bucks have been hot in February. Their +8.5 net rating is the third-best mark in the NBA. Nonetheless, this is still plenty of points to give Chicago at home. Milwaukee is just 13-13-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road.
Without DeRozan but with the other two, Chicago's offensive rating (113.8)goes into the tank, though. Plus, the Bulls are just 11-18 to the under at home.
Our model gives Chicago a 63.3% chance to cover this spread against the 52.5% standard implied odds at -110. It also views the under as 64.5% likely to hit versus that same 52.5% implied mark.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Suns ML (-108) - 5 Stars
Under 223.0 (-110) - 3 Stars
Even though the Suns aren't at full strength yet, it's yet to be seen if the Clippers' new pieces can help them win this game they've historically lost.
L.A. has lost three straight games outright in Phoenix, and the Suns have Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Devin Booker all back in the lineup and at full workloads. With those three on the floor, Phoenix has a +5.4 net rating that would rank third in the league if translated to the full season.
The Clips' starting lineup hasn't changed amidst their bench acquisitions, and the team has just a +0.7 net rating overall during the month of February. Ty Lue has also noted he wants to scale back the workload for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George heading into the break.
If there was ever a matchup to be made for an under, it's this one. Both of these teams are top-11 in defensive rating, and they're both top-five squads in the percentage of unders hit this year.
Our model sees the Suns as 71.6% likely to win this game against these 52.3% implied odds. It also feels the under hits 62.7% of the time.