3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/6/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
Jaylen Brown is averaging 7.1 rebounds per night for the season. He has snagged at least eight rebounds in six of his last eight games, including in three of his past four outings. He needs just seven for this to cash.
This line being at 6.5 with a +116 price is likely due to blowout risk as the Boston Celtics are 11.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons. While a blowout is obviously a very real concern for this over, I still like Brown's chances to get at least seven rebounds.
The Pistons (12th in pace) are a slight pace-up matchup for Boston (17th), and Detroit is just 24th in rebound rate. The Pistons are giving up the 11th-most rebounds per night to shooting guards.
Our model has Brown totaling 6.6 boards. If this was priced as more of a 50/50 bet, I'd stay away, but with plus-money on the over, that's the side I'm on.
Draymond Green to Record a Triple-Double (+1100)
This one is priced at +1100 for a reason -- it probably won't happen.
But I think there's a better chance Draymond Green gets a triple-double than what the +1100 price implies.
The matchup and game environment should help. Green is taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both OKC and the Golden State Warriors sit in the top three in pace. The total is a juicy 234.0 points with a 4.0-point spread.
OKC has allowed 11.0 rebounds per night to power forwards, the 3rd-most, as well as the 10th-most points per game to the position (23.4). Green also averages 0.55 more boards per 36 minutes with Stephen Curry -- who is out -- off the floor this year, per CourtIQ.
While Draymond isn't a lock to get to double-figures in any of points, rebounds or assists, we have him projected to get fairly close to a triple-double as we peg him to amass 9.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.9 dimes. I think it's worth a roll of the dice at this +1100 price.
Monte Morris Under 11.5 Points (-120)
Bradley Beal is listed on the Washington Wizards' injury report but went through Monday morning shootaround, which is a positive sign for his status. If Beal plays, I like the under on Monte Morris' points prop.
The Wiz will see the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it's a rough matchup for Morris.
The Cavaliers are first in defensive rating and play at the league's slowest pace. On top of that, Cleveland is holding the point guard position to just 23.0 points per game, the third-fewest. Point guards are getting only 18.9 shots per game against the Cavs, tied for the fifth-fewest.
Morris has netted 11 or fewer points in three of his past four contests. He's scoring 10.5 points per game for the campaign.
We project him to get 11.1 points today, assuming Beal plays. I'm much less interested in this if Beal is ruled out.