NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/23/23: 3 Home Spreads to Bet
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons +11.0 (-112)
The Milwaukee Bucks are healthy. They list both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton as probable. That helps to explain the double-digit spread on the road over the Pistons.
Detroit is far from full strength, but is the spread too big? The data suggests so.
In five games with Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday active, the Bucks are 3-2 outright but 1-4 against the spread (falling short by an average of 5.2 points).
The Bucks also are just 11-12 on the road with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -2.6. The Pistons at home are only 6-17 but have a spread-adjusted point differential of only -0.6.
Since 2016, home underdogs of 11.0 points or more have a 54.2% cover rate and do so by an average of 2.3 points.
numberFire likes the Pistons to cover with a 60.3% probability.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls -1.0 (-110)
Chicago Bulls Moneyline (-112)
These are two super average teams by net rating when looking at the relevant samples for this game, which is mostly with key players healthy. That helps explain the tight spread favoring the home side here.
My model is using relevant net ratings of +0.9 for the Bulls and +0.0 for the Hawks.
The Bulls hold a 54.5% cover rate at home, thanks to a +3.0 adjusted net rating in said home matchups.
The Atlanta Hawks have a 43.5% road cover rate and are 11-13 outright as visitors.
Accounting for homecourt advantage and rest, my model likes the Bulls by 3.8 rather than 1.0. I'm fine with either the spread or the moneyline here; numberFire's model has a one-star lean on the Bulls' moneyline.
Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings +1.5 (-110)
numberFire's algorithm is tagging the Kings' spread as a three-star play (plus their moneyline of +100 as a two-star play).
They host the Memphis Grizzlies, a 31-15 team that is just 11-12 on the road with a 38.1% road cover rate. Their spread-adjusted point differential is -4.1 in road matchups.
The Kings are 15-10 in home games and possess a +4.9 opponent-adjusted point differential. They also have covered in 57.5% of games with both De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis active.
My model has the expected spread at -0.5 in Sacramento's favor, so I'll gladly take the points in the case of a one-point loss.
