NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 1/19/23: 3 Spreads That Stand Out
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-240)
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-108)
My model -- and numberFire's model -- is showing value in the Celtics getting a home win over the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors' road struggles are well-documented by this point. They're 5-17 as visitors and have an opponent-adjusted net rating of -7.1, ranking them fourth-worst in the NBA.
Boston, at home, is third-best by adjusted net rating (+10.6).
Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.0 (-110)
The Timberwolves are listing Rudy Gobert as questionable for tonight's game. He did not play last night, which wound up a four-point loss to the Denver Nuggets. Even with him exiting after four minutes the game prior, the Timberwolves lost by a single point to the Utah Jazz.
The Toronto Raptors' relevant net rating for this game is only -0.4. Even accounting for rest and travel, the numbers say that the Timberwolves should be able to cover at home.
numberFire lists the Timberwolves' spread as a two-star play.
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns +1.5 (-110)
Without Kevin Durant, the Brooklyn Nets just aren't really the same team. They have a relevant net rating for this matchup of only -3.1 yet are favored on the road against the Suns once we account for their overall health.
Granted, the Suns are without Devin Booker and (possibly) Chris Paul (questionable), but on possessions with them off the floor but with Deandre Ayton active, their net rating is -3.4. That's not ideal -- but it gels with the Nets' splits we can focus on for this matchup.
Once we factor in travel and home/road adjustments, the Suns are slight favorites in my model.
numberFire's algorithm has Phoenix to cover as a two-star play, as well.