NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/9/23: Siding With 3 Unders to Start the Week

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards

New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-102)
New Orleans Pelicans +1.0 (-110)
Under 227.5 (-110)

A lot of injury news is felt in this matchup between the Pelicans and the Washington Wizards.

New Orleans is still without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, and the Wizards are listing Bradley Beal as out.

So, we must adjust.

New Orleans, in games with C.J. McCollum but without Williamson and Ingram, is 5-2 with a pristine non-garbage-time net rating of +11.5. In those seven games, they are also 5-2 against the spread (71.4%) compared to a 45.5% cover rate outside the split.

The Wizards have a 14-game sample with Kristaps Porzingis and no Beal. They're 6-8 record-wise, and notably, the scoring goes down. Their games total 216.9 points without Beal but 229.6 with Beal.

numberFire's model likes the Pelicans' moneyline and spread as four-star plays. My model likes the under a good bit, given the loss of the offensive firepower.

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks

New York Knicks +1.5 (-110)
New York Knicks Moneyline (+104)
Under 221.0 (-110)

We're also seeing four-star suggestions for the underdogs in this game. The Knicks are 1.5-point home underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee, on the road, is also .500 (9-9) but with a point differential of -5.0 and a 35.3% road cover rate. They have surpassed their own implied team total in 4 of these 18 games (22.2%).

In games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday but without Khris Middleton, the Bucks are a strong 14-7 but hold a net rating of "only" +3.3.

New York, at home, is 10-10 despite a +3.5 point differential. In games with Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and Mitchell Robinson (and with RJ Barrett off the floor), New York holds a +7.7 net rating.

Additionally, my model thinks this total should be 216.4.

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-335)
Boston Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Under 238.0 (-110)

This time, we're siding with the favorite, and while I understand if you're not betting the Celtics to win at -335, their spread is still viable.

numberFire's algorithm rates Boston -8.5 as a two-star play; they're 59.5% likely to win by at least nine points, via the model here.

Both sides are relatively healthy (in terms of how their rotation has looked this season), but even without Marcus Smart factored in, the Celtics should be able to handle business.

In games with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but with Smart off the floor, their net rating is +8.5.

Chicago's net rating -- with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic active -- is only +0.7.