NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 1/5/23: Will Luka Doncic and the Mavericks Beat Boston to Extend Their Winning Streak?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic
Under 230.0 (-110)
The Grizzlies are listing Desmond Bane as questionable, but even with him active, this game projects to fall short of 230.0 points, according to my model. (The projected total I have is 225.9.)
numberFire's algorithm anticipates a total of 225.0 and lists the under as a two-star play (i.e. two-unit recommendation).
Notably, these two teams tend to keep opponents short of their implied totals, too. Teams facing Orlando have hit their implied total at just a 44.7% clip (falling short by an average of 2.9 points). Teams against Memphis are at a 43.2% over rate on their implied total.
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Not only does Luka Doncic feel pretty unstoppable right now from a box score standpoint, but the Mavs have also won seven straight games.
They haven't had to leave Texas since before Christmas when they had a road-road set with the Minnesota Timberwolves on December 19th and 21st. They were at the Houston Rockets on the 23rd and then were either home or at the Rockets or San Antonio Spurs in each game since.
Today's game is their only matchup between Monday (a 111-106 road win against Houston) and Saturday (another home game -- against the New Orleans Pelicans). So, in short, they should be ready to rock for tonight.
The Boston Celtics, meanwhile, had their home cooking come to an end recently. After a seven-game home streak, they began a four-game road trip. They lost to the Denver Nuggets (123-111) on Sunday and the Oklahoma City Thunder (150-117) on Tuesday to start it off.
Overall, Boston is just 11-7 on the road; Dallas is 15-5 at home.
Both my model and numberFire's like the Mavericks to cover as home underdogs, and their moneyline (+120) is also in play.
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-270)
Utah Jazz -7.0 (-110)
Someone has to win this game, which will be welcomed by either the Jazz or the Rockets, each of whom enters on a five-game losing streak. Well, Houston might welcome the loss, but you know.
Anyway, one of the favored plays in numberFire's model today is the Jazz moneyline. According to the numberFire model, they're 81.1% likely to pick up the win, suggesting a moneyline of nearly -430.
My model isn't quite as high (78.3%; -361), but it's still an appealing option.
That heavy win probability is tied to a two-star suggestion on the Jazz spread (-7.0).
Accounting for health for this game, my model thinks the spread should be 10.0 rather than 7.0.