NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/2/23: Can Golden State Cover Again at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets
Under 242.5 (-110)
No team has a higher over rate on the season than the Los Angeles Lakers (63.9%). That number for the Charlotte Hornets is 48.6%.
Notably, these two teams tend to outperform their own implied total (66.7% of the time and by an average of 3.7 points for the Lakers and 51.4% of the time and by an average of 2.7 points for the Hornets).
However, it's the under that makes the most sense here.
In games with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward active but with Kelly Oubre (out) off the floor, the Hornets are a below-average offense. Their offensive rating in that split is 107.2, yet they allow just 109.2 points per 100 possessions on the other side.
Accounting for the Lakers' health (mainly LeBron James and Russell Westbrook being active but without Anthony Davis), the Lakers are operating at a stellar 118.5 offensive rating and an over-friendly defensive rating of 119.3. However, the combination of the two are pointing to an under.
numberFire's model likes this game to stay under 243 points with a 65.3% probability.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Over 233.0 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves +2.0 (-110)
We need some tweaks in this game, as well. The home side, Minnesota, is still without Karl-Anthony Towns. In games without him but with Rudy Gobert, D'Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves are a poor 3-8 with a net rating of -4.9.
Why not back the Denver Nuggets then? Well, their road record (10-9) masks a weak road point differential of -3.8. Adjusting for opponents, their point differential in road games is -6.0, and they have a 38.9% cover rate in road games. They've been the luckiest road team, in terms of record versus expectation, in the NBA.
numberFire's model does find value both on the Timberwolves' spread (+2.0) and their moneyline (+112), rating both as two-star plays.
My model, though, prefers the over. Both teams have relevant defensive ratings of at least 116.1 for this matchup.
Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors -1.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-120)
The Warriors at the Chase Center have been a very different team than when traveling. They have a 16-2 home record despite an overall record of 19-18.
At home, Golden State has a league-best 77.8% cover rate and a very strong adjusted point differential of +9.1 points. They do this by stifling opposing offenses and allowing just 109.5 points per game.
The Atlanta Hawks have a weak 37.5% road cover rate and an adjusted point differential of -2.5. They tend to allow points on the road (117.5 per game, which works out to an average of 2.3 more points than their opponents' implied team total).
Accounting for injuries on both sides of the floor, my model actually thinks this is a Golden State romp (by around 7.5 points).
numberFire's model likes the spread (Golden State -1.5) and moneyline (Golden State -120) as three- and four-star plays, respectively.
