NBA Betting Guide for Friday 12/9/22: Backing 3 Home Teams to Cover
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 (-112)
Under 228.0 (-110)
These two sides are on a bit of a downslide.
The Los Angeles Lakers have lost two straight and now extend their road trip to a fifth game. They're 4-8 on the road overall this season.
Philadelphia returns home after a winless three-game road trip, including losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Houston Rockets. They're just 7-5 at home and 12-12 on the season but have not played since Monday.
They also list Tyrese Maxey as out. In games without Maxey but with James Harden and Joel Embiid, the 76ers are just 2-5 despite a non-garbage net rating of +4.4, so the record is a bit misleading.
The Maxey injury is the main one here (because LeBron James and Anthony Davis are probable).
With adjustments for health, home-court advantage, and rest, my model thinks the 76ers should be favored by 7.5 rather than 4.5. It also thinks this game totals 222.9 points, thus pointing to the under.
numberFire's model likes the under as a four-star play (out of five) and the Sixers to cover as a three-star play.
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
Under 228.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 (-110)
Despite the return of Chris Paul last game against the Boston Celtics, the Phoenix Suns were blown out in Phoenix 125-98.
In games with Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton, the Suns are 5-4 and hold a net rating of +2.5 on possessions that were medium leverage or higher. That's all right -- but not amazing.
The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones for this one. Although the team has a fairly weak offensive rating of 108.2 in games with Zion Williamson but without those two on the floor, they're 13-6 in games with Williamson overall. And the net rating itself is +6.6.
Throwing this relevant data into the blender, I'm getting an expected spread of 4.0 in the Pelicans' favor rather than 1.5 for the Suns.
I much prefer the under, though. New Orleans' offense is a bit problematic without Ingram, yet they have played really good defense without him.
numberFire's model likes the under as a four-star play, as well.
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
Over 224.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks +1.0 (-110)
I'm going with an over in this matchup, given the expected efficiency for each side on offense.
Firstly, the Mavericks are a good team at home. They're 10-3 in the American Airlines Center, and although they average only 111.8 points per game at home, those 13 games in Dallas thus far have gone over at a 61.5% clip.
I have their relevant offensive rating based on tonight's lineup at 118.6.
The Milwaukee Bucks have a relevant offensive rating of 119.6 if I scale back their sample with Khris Middleton playing in games alongside both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. That's just a 285-possession sample if excluding garbage possessions. Without any regression to a larger sample, their offensive rating has been 124.9 in that split.
These are elite offenses with worse-than-average defenses, and the total isn't that high.
With home-court advantage, a day of rest for themselves, and good underlying data, Dallas is rating out as a 2.5-point favorite for me, so I like them to cover as 1.0-point underdogs.
