NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 12/6/22: Will Offense or Pace Win Out Between the Mavericks and Nuggets?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers -5.0 (-110)
Under 225.0 (-110)
The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Los Angeles Lakers on national television in this matchup.
Cleveland is 10-1 at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse with an elite +12.3 point differential. Accounting for opponents, the Cavaliers' mark is even better (+13.1).
The visiting Lakers are just 4-6 on the road with a -4.9 point differential but an -8.1 opponent-adjusted point differential, so they're an even weaker road team than the record suggests.
Overall, these teams are pretty healthy, and the main injury is on the home side, as Jarrett Allen is questionable for tonight's game. Even without him (and in games with Donovan Mitchell), the Cavs have a relevant net rating of +4.2.
With the Lakers' key players healthy, their net rating is -1.9. Accounting for home-court advantage, the edge is still on the Cavaliers to cover the spread.
Notably, these teams operate with better-than-average defenses, and the Lakers' strength isn't their offense. My model projects a total of 219.1 tonight.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Over 220.5 (-110)
In this one, the Miami Heat are at home but are traveling back from Memphis after a 101-93 loss against the Grizzlies last night. That capped a four-game road stand.
Those same Grizzlies beat the Detroit Pistons in Detroit's most recent game by a score of 122-112 in Detroit.
Detroit, away from home, is only 2-11 with a horrendous -12.2 opponent-adjusted point differential, a rate better only than the San Antonio Spurs' -15.7 mark. They'll be without point guard Cade Cunningham.
Assuming the Heat don't rest key players, my model is leaning on the over and expects 224.6 points in this clash.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Over 222.5 (-110)
The Dallas Mavericks will hit the road for a home-road back-to-back set. Last night, they hosted the Phoenix Suns and rocked them 130-111. Now they're at altitude in Denver to face the Denver Nuggets.
Dallas hasn't traveled well this season and is just 2-8 on the road -- albeit with only a -2.7 point differential. That still comes with a 3-7 record against the spread, though. Their road games have seen some scoring, at least. They've gone over at a 60.0% clip overall and have allowed opponents to score 6.5 points more than their implied team total, on average.
Denver is a solid 6-2 at home and has played the fewest home games of any team in the NBA. The +11.0 point differential in those games scales back to a +6.4 with opponent adjustments, but they're a good team in Ball Arena.
Overall, we're getting two of the league's best offenses that do certainly play slowly on offense. Neither defense is particularly great, however, and the total isn't very high, either. My model thinks this one scores 229.8.
