NBA Betting Guide for Monday 11/28/22: 3 Underdogs and 3 Overs to Bet

Some injury news may not have the impact we'd typically assume. How can we benefit from that tonight?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans

Over 232.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.0 (-112)

The Thunder are a pretty fun team for being just 8-12 on the season. They're only 3-7 away from home, and they run into a good New Orleans Pelicans team that is 11-8 on the year and 6-3 at home.

The records might imply that the spread is a bit too small, but that's not really the case once you account for the injuries that the Pelicans are dealing with.

They list C.J. McCollum as out, Brandon Ingram as doubtful, and Larry Nance Jr. as questionable. We can assume there will be no McCollum and Ingram, at least.

In games with Zion Williamson but without those two, we don't have too many non-garbage-time possessions (144), but in that split, their net rating is a dreadful -15.2, thanks mostly to a terrible offensive rating (96.5).

As for the Thunder, they'll have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, and in that sample, their net rating is "only" -4.7, and that's due to awful defense (a 118.0 defensive rating).

Accounting for all this, my model likes the total to be 236.5 and for the Thunder to cover -- by just 1.5 points. So I prefer the over.

Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets

Houston Rockets +11.5 (-110)
Over 228.5 (-110)

A hefty spread awaits the Rockets (5-14 overall and 2-9 on the road) against the Denver Nuggets (12-7 on the year with a 4-2 home record). Denver has played the fewest home games (six) of any team.

The Rockets are largely healthy among their relevant players, and the Nuggets are listing Michael Porter Jr. as doubtful, Bones Hyland as questionable, and Jeff Green as out.

In games with both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets are 9-5 but actually have a non-garbage net rating of -3.7, albeit with some unlucky shooting defense. They are, though, the luckiest team in the NBA by wining percentage compared to multiple measures of expected winning percentage.

The Rockets hold a respectable (all things considered for a team of their pedigree) -4.1 net rating when accounting for their health.

My model assumes a total of 233.5 for this matchup as a result and thinks that the spread should be 7.5, not 11.5.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings

Phoenix Suns +1.0 (-110)
Over 226.5 (-110)

The visiting Suns are 1.0-point underdogs. They're just 2-5 on the road but 13-6 overall. Their road point differential per game (-0.6) suggests they have been -- along with the Toronto Raptors -- the most unlucky road team in the NBA.

The Sacramento Kings hold a 6-3 home record and have a health advantage because their bill of health is pretty spotless while the Suns are without Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson.

But the Suns own a +7.0 net rating without those two on the floor in games with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton active, so this spread seems off. My model thinks they should be favored by a point. Phoenix is also receiving 73% of the spread money.

Once again, my model loves the over -- more here than in the other spots. The presumed downgrade to the Suns' offense without Paul is overstated.