3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/21/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Threes (+114)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having a huge start to the season, and he's in a great spot tonight to sink a couple of threes in a date with the New York Knicks.
No team in the NBA gives up three-point tries at a higher rate than the Knicks do; New York's 43.8% three-point attempt rate allowed is tied for a league-high mark.
SGA isn't a high-volume shooter from deep; he's taken more than four three-pointers just three times this season. But he's been on point with his jumper, making multiple treys in four straight, including a 2-for-3 effort from deep versus the Knicks on November 13th.
He's also due for an uptick in three-point attempts. SGA's three-point attempt rate is a lowly 13.8%. He's at 24.6% for his career, and DARKO has him with an expected three-point attempt rate of 18.9%.
The pace in this game should help, too, as both the Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder are the in top 11 in pace.
The last box to check is our model, which has Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 2.3 made triples on 6.2 attempts.
Considering everything I just rattled off as well as the fact this bet is at +114, there's a ton to like here. Fire away.
Jerami Grant Under 2.5 Made Threes (-115)
On the opposite end of the spectrum is this matchup for Jerami Grant.
Grant is up against the Milwaukee Bucks. Not only are the Bucks excellent defensively (and all around), ranking first in defensive rating, but they have permitted a 34.9% three-point attempt rate, tied for the third-lowest.
The Portland Trail Blazers will be sans Damian Lillard today. That's a big deal. But so far this season, Grant is actually taking 0.16 fewer three-point attempts per 36 minutes with Dame off the floor than when Dame is out there.
Grant's lighting it up from beyond the arc so far, shooting 48.4% from three. That number is bound to come down. He's a career 35.5% three-point shooter, and DARKO projects him to hit 38.0% of his threes this season.
On top of that, there's some blowout risk for Grant. The Blazers are 10.0-point road 'dogs, and if things get out of hand, Grant could see less run than he normally does.
In all, we project Grant to make 2.2 treys on 5.9 attempts.
Kelly Olynyk Over 5.5 Rebounds (+106)
Over his previous six games, Kelly Olynyk has snared at least six rebounds on four occasions. One of the exceptions was a foul-plagued game in which he played only 20 minutes, and Olynyk still pulled down four boards in that game.
There are reasons to believe Olynyk is going to start rebounding more, too.
For the season, Olynyk is averaging only 8.5 boards per 100 possessions. That's the lowest clip of his career. He's totaled at least 11.2 rebounds per 100 possessions in each of the past five campaigns. He's converting only 46.2% of his rebound chances after converting 57.5% a year ago.
DARKO also thinks his rebound numbers will eventually -- sorry -- rebound as DARKO has him at an expected 10.4 rebounds per 100 possessions.
We project Olynyk to get 6.0 boards tonight versus a Los Angeles Clippers squad that is just below average in rebound rate.
