NBA Betting Guide for Monday 11/14/22: Going All In on 3 Overs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
Over 229.0 (-110)
There aren't too many injuries to account for in this matchup, and that's always welcomed because we can look at larger samples.
We have a 1,106-possession sample (excluding low-leverage possessions) already for the Boston Celtics in games with both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In that split, their offensive rating is 120.6 with a worse-than-average defensive rating of 114.0.
For the Oklahoma City Thunder, they have both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey active. Their offensive rating in games with them is 114.9 (around 104% of the NBA average), but their defensive rating is 116.7 (around 107% of the NBA average).
This is all good news for the over.
These two teams also have a tendency to beat their own implied totals. The Thunder have done it in 11 of 13 games (84.6%, an NBA-best). The Celtics have done it in 8 of 13 games (61.5%).
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta Hawks +4.0 (-110)
Over 223.0 (-110)
The Hawks mostly have a clean bill (bird joke) of health, but the Milwaukee Bucks don't. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton remain out, as does Pat Connaughton. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable.
In games with Antetokounmpo but with those three off the floor (and removing garbage-time possessions), the Bucks have a net rating of -6.7 over 233 possessions.
My model thinks this should be an outright pick'em as a result, so taking the four points is very justifiable.
numberFire's model doesn't recommend a spread pick but does like the over (223.0) as a three-star play.
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs +8.0 (-110)
Over 232.5 (-110)
The key injury in this matchup is Klay Thompson. Though there's no official report yet, Thompson is unlikely to play on the second day of a back-to-back, and that would be crucial for their data.
The Golden State Warriors without Thompson on the floor (but in games with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green) have a net rating of -6.4. That efficiency makes it hard to cover an 8.0-point spread against any team.
The Spurs have had two days of rest since their last outing and are largely healthy among key players. I have their relevant net rating at a -2.5.
numberFire's model views the Spurs as 58.3% likely to cover here, as well.
Based on these key health trends, we're looking at two above-average offenses with non-elite defenses, too. My model thinks the over/under should be 237.9.