NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 10/19/22: Which Home Favorites Can Start the Season Strong?

Our model is identifying some home favorites to kick off the first big slate of the NBA season. Which teams are set to cover?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (-144) - 3 stars
Brooklyn Nets -2.5 (-110) - 2 stars

Close spreads in favor of a home team early on in the season seem to be good places to seek value.

Since 2017, in October and November, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 are 148-101 outright (59.4%) and 137-110-2 (55.5%) against the spread.

The model is siding with Brooklyn pretty comfortably, as they are considered 70.3% likely to win this matchup. The betting trends -- 77% of the spread bets and 76% of the spread money -- indicate the public is siding with Brooklyn, too.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a fairly polarizing, high-upside team early on this season. FanDuel Sportsbook lists their win total at 45.5 with -110 odds on both the over and the under. The Nets' win total is up at 51.5 albeit with -142 odds on the under. That's still a pretty sizable gap.

And our model ranks the Nets as the fourth-best team in the league. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 16th.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline (-560) - 3 stars
Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 (-110) - 2 stars
Over 225.5 (-110) - 1 star

Double-digit spreads never feel fun to bet, to me, but the model is showing value on the Timberwolves to take care of the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder and earn a convincing win to kick off a campaign with high hopes.

FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Timberwolves with a 48.5-win prop (with -122 odds on the over, too). Minnesota is +3300 to win the Finals, as well, ranking them 12th. They're a pretty legitimate contender with a revamped roster, headlined by the addition of Rudy Gobert.

Since 2017, double-digit home favorites have had an 84.7% win rate in October and November.

Also, across all games in which the home team is favored by 10.0 to 12.0, the over is 53.2% likely to hit since 2016.

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-144) - 3 stars
Sacramento Kings -2.5 (-110) - 4 stars

We're seeing most of the spread action in this game come on the Kings' side: 60% of the spread bets and 68% of the spread money is on Sacramento. That's not the hugest discrepancy, but we should always be mindful of when the money outweighs the percentage of bets placed.

The preseason win totals (39.5 for the Portland Trail Blazers with -134 odds on the under and 33.5 for the Kings with -132 odds on the over) would suggest that Portland is the better side. However, as we already mentioned, early-season home favorites tend to do quite well.

Our model views the Kings as 57.5% likely to cover the 2.5-point spread, good for an expected return of 9.8%.