NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/18/22: Will the Favorites Cover on Opening Night?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-134) - 5 stars
Boston Celtics -2.5 (-110) - 4 stars
The Celtics start the season as numberFire's top-ranked NBA team, and the Philadelphia 76ers are eighth. The nERD (or expected winning percentage) discrepancy (71.2 for Boston) suggests a +6.3-point point differential. For the 76ers (62.6 nERD), the expected point differential is +3.8. That's the 2.5-point spread exactly.
Accounting for home-court advantage, though, the raw data points to Boston.
Last season, Boston was 28-13 at home (68.3%) with a point differential of +7.0, the fifth-best point differential in that split.
Since 2017, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 points in October are 45-26 outright (63.4%), implying moneyline odds of -173. That bests the listed odds of -134.
Also, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 in the opening month are 42-29 against the spread (59.2%). Slight home favorites to open the year have been quite good in recent seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-295) - 5 stars
Golden State Warriors -7.0 (-110) - 3 stars
The good news: they're still favored by 7.0 at home over the Los Angeles Lakers and have a heavy -295 moneyline. That moneyline implies win odds of 74.7%. Our model gives the Warriors an astounding 87.8% win chance. That would mean a moneyline of -720.
Historically speaking, early-season home favorites of 6.0 to 8.0 are 46-14 (76.7%) and 31-29 against the spread (51.7%). That coincides with the preferred action being the moneyline and not the spread here.
Golden State's nERD (66.1) indicates an expected point differential of +4.8. The Lakers rate out at a 59.6 (+2.9). Once again, that puts us more on the outright win rather than the spread.
If a -295 moneyline isn't enough for you, then the model is also showing a two-star interest in the under (216.0). Since 2017, October games are 199-221-5 to the over, indicating a 47.4% over rate.