NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 4/21/22: Will The Upset Streak Continue?
The Bulls and Pelicans have pulled off outright upsets as double-digit underdogs this week. With two-more home underdogs and a heavy spread in Utah, will the theme of upsets keep rolling?
Betting on the NBA can be tricky, but you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? All odds are from NBA odds, and all ratings are out of five stars.
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves ML (+114) - 1 Star
Under 236.0 (-110) - 1 Star
Memphis and Minnesota have yet to play even a reasonably-normal contest, so I honor your bravery for pondering a wager on the two teams in this one.
However, the public has made their mind up. 80% of moneyline bets are on the Grizzlies to prevail as a small road favorite. I'll fade them with Minnesota in this spot.
The key is that this isn't a 50-50 bet. Minnesota has just a 47.2% chance to win this one per numberFire's model, but that's still a value compared to 46.7% implied odds at the +114 tag here.
As for the total, these teams have averaged 233.5 points in six meetings this season, but recent trends ever further highlight the under. This postseason, 16 of the 23 games thus far (69.6%) have fallen short of the projected total, and 13 of the 20 most similar contests to this one in numberFire's database hit the "under."
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Denver +2.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
Under 223.0 (-110) - 2 Stars
Another favorite has the eyes and hearts of a majority of bettors tonight.
It's the Golden State Warriors, who 85% of moneyline bettors believe will take a 3-0 series lead in Denver tonight. I'll take the Nuggets getting a 2.5-point hook on the other side.
numberFire's model actually believes Denver takes this one 53.3% of the time outright. Given the unreal shooting in Golden State's backcourt, I am more comfortable taking a -110 price on a one-basket buffer versus the +120 moneyline -- but it's up to you.
The Dubs had a +9.4 net rating at home, but that tumbled to just +1.2 on the road. The Nuggets had a +2.4 net rating at home. Expecting another game where Golden State routs Denver isn't practical in this space.
I'm totally good backing the under here, too. In an even more drastic trend than the prior contests, 15 of the 20 most similar games to this one in our model ended below their projected point total. Until "unders" in this year's postseason dry up, I'm going to keep milking the cash cow.
