NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/25/22: What the Data Says About the Total for Dallas and Minnesota
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Under (214.5) - 3 stars
numberFire's model has three-star interest in the under (214.5) for this matchup between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat.
New York lists Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson as questionable, and Miami lists Jimmy Butler as questionable, as well.
In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is 20-5, and our model is projecting a final score of 107.6 to 100.8 in favor of Miami. That totals just 208.4 points, falling well shy of the 215 this game would need to go over.
Though both teams are 5-5 on overs in their past 10 games, Heat games have fallen 3.5 points shy of the total on average. That number for the Knicks is 7.8 points below the total on average.
And although this matchup is 2-0 on overs this season, their first two games had totals of 202.0 and 211.0 and averaged just 210.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Under (228.5) - 2 stars
Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline (-154) - 1 star
Another under is the preferred play in this matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
As often noted here, the Mavericks are an under-friendly team this season with a league-low 36.6% over rate on their full-game totals and a 38.4% over rate on their implied team totals (second-worst in the NBA).
Minnesota has been more of an over-friendly team (59.5%), but within the context of this game, our model expects 223.3 points. That makes the under 60.6% likely.
My model is projecting a total of 219.4 points, as well.
The over is 2-1 in this matchup so far this season, but the two overs came when the over/under was 214.0 or lower (and even then, they went over by 2.0 and 2.5 points).
These games have totaled 216, 216, and 218 points.
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers Spread (+3.5) - 3 stars
Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline (+138) - 3 stars
Along with Portland's 2-8 record in their past 10 games, they're a respectable (for a 27-45 team) 4-5-1 against the spread in that span. And they're 4-3 over their past seven against the spread, too.
The Houston Rockets are 3-7 in their past 10 with a cover rate of just 40.0%.
Our model likes the Blazers to cover with an astounding 71.0% probability against a reeling Rockets team, making it a three-star play.
Teams representing Portland in similar matchups to this one in our database (i.e. a home underdog in a spot between bad teams generally later in the season) are 20-5 against the spread.
