NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/10/22: Digging Into the Short Slate
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Oh, baby. Let's go.
We're getting a marquee matchup to kick off the two-game NBA slate tonight with the Brooklyn Nets at the Philadelphia 76ers.
That means we're getting Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving against James Harden and Joel Embiid.
Removing garbage time stats and looking only at games with KD and Irving but with Harden off the floor, the Nets -- over 143 minutes -- have a net rating of +7.4. That comes with an effective field goal percentage of 58.5% on a shot quality rating of 52.0% (so they're overperforming, but that's a bit expected with such good offensive players). It'll be a bit hard to maintain such a big gap long-term, but we can't expect mega regression.
Notably, too, they are allowing a shot quality rating of 53.0% in this sample, so they're playing some pretty decent defense all things considered.
As for the Sixers, in games with both Harden and Embiid, they are a perfect 5-0 with a non-garbage net rating of +15.2 with a shot quality rating of 54.0% and an effective field goal percentage of 58.2%.
They're pretty evenly matched offensively over these small samples.
That said, the 76ers are 4.0-point home favorites. Via FanDuel Sportsbook, the Sixers have earned 53% of spread bets and 50% of the money on spread bets.
Our model is finding no value on the spread. It does list the 76ers' moneyline (-210) as a one-star lean (a one-unit recommendation, that is). The -210 moneyline suggests win odds of 67.7%. numberFire's model likes the Sixers to win this game with a 70.6% probability.
The under (230.0) is also a one-star lean. In the 25 most similar games to this one in our database, the under is 22-3.
In all, there's not a lot of value, but it's the Sixers' moneyline and the under that the algorithm is leaning toward.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Just because the first game is a banger doesn't mean the nightcap is a snoozer.
However, just like the Nets/Sixers game, this one isn't popping with a ton of betting value.
The 44-22 Golden State Warriors take on the 39-26 Denver Nuggets on the road. The Nuggets are on a back-to-back after playing in Sacramento on Wednesday. Though they held a sizable second-quarter lead, they ended up winning by only six points, and four of their five starters cleared 30 minutes.
The Nuggets are 3-0 in the season series and hold wins of 3, 1, and 7 points over the Warriors. That includes a seven-point win on Monday night.
Tonight, Denver is a 2.0-point home underdog, and the total is 226.5.
Our model is recommending no pick on either the spread or moneyline. My model views the spread as 2.5 in favor of the Warriors, so that's not really enough, either.
Notably, the Warriors are drawing 66% of spread bets but 80% of the spread money from public bets.
As for the under, that's where numberFire's model is finding something. It's a two-unit suggestion and is rating out as 58.7% like to stay under 226.5 points. My model anticipates a total of 220.3, as well.
Since the start of last season, games featuring a slight home underdog on a back-to-back have a 54.7% under rate.
