NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/1/22: A Total to Target in Houston
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards
The algorithm at numberFire is in agreement with a little bit of smart money indication on the spread for this game.
Though 59% of the spread bets are on the Washington Wizards tonight, that comes with 65% of the money for a little signal there.
But even without that, there are reasons for the Wizards to cover (-3.5) and win outright (-158), which our model rates as two-unit and four-unit suggestions, respectively.
The Wizards are 3-4 since the trade deadline but boast a +1.4 spread-adjusted point differential in that sample. The Detroit Pistons are 3-3 with a spread-adjusted mark of -0.3.
Since 2016, home teams with a moneyline of around -160 have a 57.9% win rate and have a 51.1% cover rate, as well. Our model gives them a 72.8% chance to win, which is why the Wizards' moneyline is rating as the top play of the night.
My model rates Washington's win odds at 63.1%, which still outperforms their implied moneyline odds (61.2%).
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
These two teams most recently had to try to hold off big surges from opponents in their most recent game.
The Golden State Warriors unsuccessfully stifled the Dallas Mavericks, en route to a 107-101 loss on Sunday. The Minnesota Timberwolves did hold off the Cleveland Cavaliers last night by a score of 127-122 and now have a short trip from Cleveland back to the Target Center where they hold an 18-12 record.
The Warriors, by the way, are 17-11 on the road.
Speaking of those home/road splits, the Timberwolves hold a 60.0% win rate despite a point differential at home of +2.3 (adjusted for spread, it's +0.7). They should be closer to 17-13 at home, though we're splitting hairs there.
Golden State, on the road, has a +2.4 point differential (+0.6 adjusted for spread).
In total, numberFire's model likes the Warriors' spread (-1.0) as a three-star play and their moneyline (-116) as a four-star play.
Since 2016, 1.0-point road favorites have a 55.8% win rate and a 53.8% cover rate. In 2022, 1.0-point road favorites have a 64.3% win rate and a 61.0% cover rate.
Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets
I've found myself hyper-focused on spreads and moneylines this season but am going to lead off with an over/under play in this matchup.
The total between the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets is 229.5.
numberFire's model likes this game to stay under that total with a 57.2% probability, good for a 9.3% expected return and a two-unit wager suggestion.
Over the past two years, we've had just 17 games that fit the criteria of a home team being 6.0-to-8.0-point underdogs with a total of 228.5 to 230.5, and the over has hit in just 29.4% of those games. Outright, those games have played 3.6 points below the total, on average.
So far on the road this season, Clippers games have a 43.8% over rate, and opponents have gone over their own implied total in just 40.6% of those matchups.
Among the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, 76.0% have stayed under the closing total.
Also, these two teams just met on Sunday and played to a score of 99-98 for a total of 197 points. This was despite shooting efficiency that wasn't totally dreadful but also with pace that was shy of the NBA average.
