NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/24/22: Can the Cavaliers Cover in Cleveland?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
The New York Knicks were able to snap a three-game skid with a 110-102 win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday, but that does put them on a back-to-back against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are 6-1 in their past seven games.
In the first matchup between these two sides (November 7th), the Cavaliers won 126-109 in Madison Square Garden while shooting 54.3% from beyond the arc while the Knicks hit at a 29.0% rate. Cleveland also won the rebounding battle 48-32.
For tonight's matchup, numberFire's model likes the Cavaliers to win (77.9%), which is enough to make their moneyline (-235) a three-star recommendation (i.e. a three-unit suggestion). The expected return is 11.0% on the Cleveland moneyline.
Cleveland to cover (-6.5) is a more tepid recommendation (a one-star play). My model views the expected spread at 8.0, and numberFire's model views the average point differential here as 8.3 points.
Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans
Injuries really impact both sides in this one.
The Indiana Pacers list Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner as out and Caris LeVert as questionable.
The New Orleans Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram and possibly Devonte' Graham (two of their best players by net rating).
Across 322 non-garbage-time minutes, the Pelicans have a -- whew -- net rating of -20.6. Even if Graham plays through his injury once more, in games with Graham but with Ingram off the floor, the team's net rating is still -11.1.
The Pacers without Sabonis, Brogdon, and Turner are at a -2.9.
Adjusting for these injuries, my model views the Pacers as favorites; numberFire's does as well.
We can take the points (Indiana +3.0) and their moneyline (+132) with two units apiece.
Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns
We'll need to do plenty of adjusting in this game, too. The Utah Jazz are on a back-to-back, just lost 94-92 to the Golden State Warriors on the road, and now travel to play the Phoenix Suns.
Utah lists Donovan Mitchell as out, and they could also be without Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley. Gobert strained his calf yesterday, and Conley is a rest candidate on a back-to-back.
The Suns remain without Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder.
FanDuel Sportsbook puts the spread at Suns -9.0 and gives them a moneyline of -420 to win (implied odds: 80.8%). numberFire's model gives the Suns a 73.6% chance to win.
That puts the Utah moneyline (+310) as a one-star lean and their spread (+9.0) as a two-star suggestion.
Over 133 medium-to-very-high leverage minutes without Gobert, Conley, and Mitchell, the Jazz actually still have a net rating of +8.9. They should be able to hang and cover.
