3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/19/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Saddiq Bey Over 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
The Pistons should have a better night at the office than last night's shellacking in Golden State's building.
They're just 6.5-point underdogs to Sacramento, and Detroit often has some inefficiencies in their player props because the production variates so wildly as they get blown out. As a result, most of the starters have decent prop lines to target on Wednesday, but I like this one with Saddiq Bey.
Bey had a tough evening with just 10 points (on 23.0% shooting) and a single rebound on Tuesday. Still, numberFire has him projected for a combination of 18.2 points and 6.0 rebounds in this contest with the Kings. That median projection smashes the expected return on -113 odds.
Sacramento is fifth in overall pace, so even with slow-footed Detroit on the other side, the 222.5-point total in this one is still friendly for overs. With that type of environment and a decently close game, there's no reason Bey should fall short of his 22.37 points plus rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
C.J. McCollum Over 2.5 Threes Made (-111)
Props off a recent injury are always risky, but C.J. McCollum's stuck out like a sore thumb.
McCollum averages 3.94 three-point makes per 36 minutes when Damian Lillard is off the floor this season. Therefore, it's really a question of whether McCollum will see a decent minutes allotment. Considering McCollum saw 28 minutes in a game separated by 20 points at the end of the third quarter on Monday, it appears Portland waited until he was in tip-top shape to bring him back.
It should help McCollum tonight that the one weakness of an otherwise-stingy Miami Heat defense is on the perimeter. Miami is allowing the third-most three-point attempts per game in the NBA (38.8). It's the one flaw of their defense that's otherwise eighth in estimated defensive rating (105.4).
With a matchup that should force him to the perimeter, and a pace without his fellow co-star that should blast this total away, the even-money odds on "3J" draining three-plus triples seem too good to pass up.
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Assists (+120)
Just a 45.5% implied probability that Anthony Edwards dishes four dimes tonight? C'mon FanDuel Sportsbook; he's a changed man!
The do-it-all scorer has been on a passing binge of late. Edwards has dished three-plus assists in six of his last seven games, so he's fairly regularly hovering around this total in a Timberwolves offense that's back to full strength after January COVID-19 woes.
There should be points on the board for the T-Wolves tonight. Atlanta is second-to-last in the NBA in estimated defensive rating (112.3), and -- to no one's surprise -- those points have come with assists. The Hawks surrender is the second-most assists per game (25.9) in the league.
In this seven-game run of assisting, Edwards (24.4% usage rate) has actually overtaken D'Angelo Russell (23.3%) for the top ball-handling role in the Wolves' backcourt. With that extra responsibility, it's a pretty easy call to forecast Edwards to bust over this mark at plus-money odds.
numberFire's median projection of 4.0 assists does just that.