NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 1/19/22: Digging Through a Big Night of Games
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks
Based on nothing but recent records, you'd probably assume the Memphis Grizzlies (9-1 in their past 10) are primed for a road win over the Milwaukee Bucks (4-6), but the Bucks are favored by 6.0 at home and are -235 to win outright.
Despite that 4-6 record, the Bucks have a positive net rating (+3.1) albeit with a negative spread-adjusted point differential (-2.6) over the past 10. Either way, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton but without Jrue Holiday (questionable) and Brook Lopez (out), the Bucks have a medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of +1.0. That doesn't really move the needle too much.
The Grizzlies, without Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane (both out) but with Ja Morant, actually have a non-garbage net rating of -7.8. This is despite a shot quality rating (basically an expected effective field goal percentage) of 53.0% and an actual effective field goal percentage of 49.2%.
This one should, then, play pretty close, and that's why numberFire's model likes the Grizzlies' spread (+6.0) and moneyline (+194) as one-star leans.
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks
The Toronto Raptors enter the fourth game of a road trip (first stop was Detroit, then Milwaukee, then Miami), and the Dallas Mavericks have been at home since the 15th; this will be their third straight home game.
numberFire's model leans only slightly on the Mavericks' moneyline (-174) and offers no pick on the spread (-4.0), yet my model is a bit stronger on this game.
Using relevant data for the Raptors and Mavericks, my model views the spread as 6.2 points. The Mavs are 59.8% likely to cover, per my model.
Their moneyline odds (63.5%) lead to value, as well: my model anticipates Dallas winning 71.1% of the time.
Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings
A lot points to the Sacramento Kings being able to win (their moneyline is -270) and cover (-6.5) at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons, who played last night (losing to the Golden State Warriors 102-86). The Kings, by contrast, have had two days of rest.
Over their past 10 games, the Pistons have a league-worst point differential of -10.7.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this matchup in our database, teams representing the Kings won at a 72.0% rate and covered in 52.0%.
Going back to the rest factor: since 2016, home teams with two days of rest against road teams on back-to-backs have won at a 66.1% clip and covered in 51.6% of them.
Narrowing the spread from 4.0 to 7.0, home teams fitting the rest criteria won in 70.5% of such games and covered in 55.0%.
