3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Monday 11/29/21
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud is likely going to leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Luka Doncic, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks ($10,600)
It's a two-man race to spend at guard on Monday, and Luka Doncic checks just about every box over Dejounte Murray.
Murray has been a surprise this season, but long-term with just a 29.6% usage rate this season, it's going to be hard to maintain his production as a point guard averaging 9.60 rebounds per 36 minutes and 9.32 assists per 36 minutes. numberFire's projections also aren't optimistic Murray keeps to those marks well above his career averages.
Doncic, though, is right around his career averages with his usual solid role. His 35.5% rate and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute mark are right in line with his season averages in two games returning from injury, so he seems to be fully back up to speed, as well.
Dallas visits Cleveland on Monday, and the Cavs are a fair matchup. They've allowed 44.40 FanDuel points per game (12th-most) to opposing players with a point guard primary position, and the Mavs' top ballhandler should fit into that role once again in the contest.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers ($10,100)
Welcome back, Joel Embiid.
Any concerns about the Philadelphia pivot man were squashed with a 45-minute performance against the Timberwolves on Saturday where he posted 68.3 FanDuel points.
Embiid's role has been tremendous all year. This is a player with a team-best 33.7% usage rate this season that also pulls down 11.02 rebounds per 36 minutes. Embiid has been operating in a similar vein to Nikola Jokic, and although he may not possess Jokic's assist upside, he's also at a much lower salary than we find last year's MVP most nights.
The 13.5-point spread in Embiid's contest is just about his only concern entering Monday. Orlando's 112.0 defensive rating is second-worst in the NBA, though, so Embiid could absolutely pay off in just three quarters at the rate of production we saw Saturday.
Paul George, SG/SF, Los Angeles Clippers ($9,200)
I actively want to provide stud options to be excited about. Not hopeful.
Paul George, unfortunately, fits the latter description. He's been a step behind his torrid, "MVPG" pace to open the year recently. It could definitely be tied to the return of Marcus Morris (20.4% usage rate since returning from injury), but George was also scuffling before Morris returned.
George has only eclipsed requisite value at this salary once in his last six games. Even with Morris back, though, George's 32.3% usage rate is indeed right in line with Doncic, Embiid, and other stars with five-digit salaries. The problem has been his 38.4% shooting over the past four contests that has dropped him to 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in that span.
The long-term drop is concerning enough to reduce confidence in George at this salary, but he's definitely capable -- especially considering his matchup.
The Clippers host the Pelicans on Monday, and the Pels have the fifth-worst defensive rating (110.8) in the NBA. It's a much more favorable matchup than George has seen recently with Golden State, slow-paced Detroit, and Dallas, so the hope is he can get back on track at a fair salary for his role.
