NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/3/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Nov 3rd, 2021
De'Andre Hunter should be due for some rebounding regression. Which other players can we target for props tonight?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

De'Andre Hunter Over 3.5 Rebounds (-106)

The per-game rebounding average for Atlanta Hawks forward De'Andre Hunter this season so far is just 2.8, which makes the prop set by FanDuel Sportsbook justifiable.

However, our model at numberFire is projecting Hunter for a full 5.0 rebounds across 31.5 minutes tonight as the Hawks face the Brooklyn Nets, who rank 20th in rebounding rate.

So, it's a solid matchup for Hunter to tack on more boards than he has been so far.

Speaking of that, Hunter has secured just 0.10 rebounds per minute this season, down from his career rate of 0.14.

That seemingly small increase adds up over his 31.5 projected minutes. The in-season rate would get him to 3.2 boards; his career rate would project him up at 4.5 rebounds.

Hunter, at a baseline of 5.0 rebounds (again, numberFire's actual baseline), projects out to be 70.6% likely to get to 4 rebounds tonight, per my simulation model.

At a lower 4.5 rate (again, based on his career rebounding rate), he's still 64.5% likely to go over.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)

Wendell Carter Jr. and the Orlando Magic will be up against the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston ranks a lowly 29th in rebounding rate so far this season and has gathered just 47.2% of available rebounds.

Carter Jr.'s rebounding rate (0.35 per minute) is up a tick from his career rate of 0.31, yet in such a promising matchup, we don't need to get too concerned that he's over-performing.

Based on Carter Jr.'s rebounding chances, too, he's actually under-performing the NBA average rate. He's picked up only 53.4% of his rebounding chances; the NBA average is 57.5%.

Overall, numberFire's projections see Carter Jr. pulling down 10.4 rebounds across 32.9 minutes. That's well over his prop.

Using that number as his baseline, my prop simulations have Carter Jr. getting to 9 rebounds at a 70.1% probability.

Miles Bridges Under 3.5 Assists (-128)

Regarding some more statistical regression, we should expect Miles Bridges' assist-per-minute rate to come down eventually.

Bridges' career assist rate is just 0.06, but he's been up at 0.10 this season. Based on his potential assists and a league-average conversion rate, he should be at 0.09.

The fact that the Charlotte Hornets are top-seven in both offensive rating and effective field goal percentage could allow Bridges to get to a higher assist conversion rate than the NBA average all season, but his current rate of 0.10 is a 167% boost right now on a per-minute basis from his career mark.

That probably won't last.

numberFire's model projects Bridges for just 2.6 assists tonight against the Golden State Warriors.