NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/19/21: Where Is the Betting Value on Opening Night?

Can we rely on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks to win at home on opening night, or are the Nets set to cover the spread?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks

This game features the primary betting value on the opening night, according to numberFire's algorithm.

It's a big fan of the Milwaukee Bucks' side and considers the Milwaukee moneyline (-118) to be a four-star-out-of-five recommendation.

In total, our data has the Bucks as a 72.0% favorite, suggesting a moneyline of -257. The -118 odds imply 54.1% win odds, so there's a massive discrepancy between the two.

This tracks with the line movement overall, too. Within the past 24 hours, the Bucks' moneyline has gone from -104 to -118, and while that suggests backing on the Bucks, our algorithm sees Milwaukee as way more favored than even the new odds.

Notably, though, the Brooklyn Nets were 3-0 in the regular season and 4-2 overall in games with both Kevin Durant and James Harden but without Kyrie Irving last season.

Comparing their efficiency in those games to the Bucks' games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, my model would place the spread at 4.2 points in favor of Milwaukee and views them as 65.6% likely to win, indicating -191 moneyline odds.

The data is pointing to the Bucks in their initial title defense game.

Also, because it's a small slate, I can note that the total has fallen from 238.5 to 233.0. Using the above sample, my model would predict a total of 228.5, and that makes the under 65.6% likely -- a bet the numberFire algorithm also likes.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

We've got a west coast game to bookend the two-game opening slate for tonight, and in it, the Los Angeles Lakers are 3.0-point home favorites against the Golden State Warriors.

The Lakers' moneyline of -158 suggests a 61.2% chance to win, yet our algorithm sees the Lakers winning this one 67.1% of the time.

That discrepancy makes for a two-star recommendation on the "new-look" Lakers (they have Russell Westbrook running point) to start the season 1-0.

For what it's worth, the Lakers managed just a 101.2 offensive rating in the preseason with Westbrook sharing the floor with LeBron James and Anthony Davis over a small sample (33 minutes). That did lead to a 5.0-point net rating, however, as the defense allowed just 96.2 points per 100 possessions.

The potentially inefficient offense (at least to start the season while they gel) and good defense (which the Lakers showed last year by leading the NBA in defensive rating at 106.8) is, perhaps, why we're also seeing movement on the under in this game to the tune of a 2.5-point drop from 228.5 to 226.0.

numberFire projects a point total of just 219.0 in this spot, making the under the best value on the board for the late game.