NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 2/28/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics

Celtics -6.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Celtics Moneyline (-250): 5-Star Rating out of 5

At 16-17, the Boston Celtics clearly aren't looking anything like the team who has made the playoffs for six years running under Brad Stevens. Despite their struggles, they've still gone a respectable 9-5 in The Garden, where they'll play host to the Washington Wizards tonight.

As home favorites this season, the Celtics have gone 8-3 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), covering by an average of 3.6 points and out-scoring their opponents by an average of 8.6. They're 12-3 SU and ATS in their past 15 home games against the Wizards -- 12-2 if you exclude one of their "home" games in the Orlando bubble last season.

The Wizards are actually a respectable 10-7 ATS this season as more than 5.0-point underdogs. They're playing on no rest, however, after winning last night at home. Teams are just 4-15 SU and 9-10 ATS this season as road underdogs on no rest after playing at home the previous night.

According to oddsFire, 55% of bettors are taking the Celtics to win outright, though 63% are taking the Wizards to cover. numberFire's model projects the Celtics to win by 12.6 points, easily covering the 6.5-point spread. We mark bets on the moneyline and spread as five- and four-star plays, respectively.

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

Under 225.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5

While Karl-Anthony Towns has been back for 10 games in February, his presence hasn't helped the Minnesota Timberwolves climb up the Western Conference standings. Losers of seven straight, the Wolves are just 7-27 coming into tonight's home game against the Phoenix Suns, who are 21-11 and fourth in the West.

The Suns have made strides on the defensive end of the floor, moving from 17th in defensive rating a year ago to 6th this season. They've allowed just 107.6 points per game on the road this campaign, down from 114.3 in 2019-20. The under has gone 9-4-2 in Suns away games this season.

The under is 3-1-1 in the past five Suns-Wolves meetings. The under is 5-3 since last year when the Wolves have played at home on no rest.

While 69% of bets and 72% of the money is being laid on the over, numberFire's model is honing in on the under, which we give a 58.6% chance of hitting. We mark the bet as a two-star play.