3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/18/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Donte DiVincenzo 10+ points and MIL win (+112)
Our model sees value in both parts of this prop.
We give the Milwaukee Bucks a 75.9% chance to defeat the Toronto Raptors, projecting a Bucks win by the score of 120-99-113.44. While the moneyline is listed at -235 in favor of Milwaukee, our numbers say it should be -315, so there's value in taking the Bucks to win outright. But pairing it with Donte DiVincenzo to score 10-plus points -- which you can find in the player performance doubles tab on FanDuel Sportsbook -- gets you a lot more bang for your buck.
DiVincenzo has scored at least 10 points in six of his last eight outings. The over/under in this game is 235.5 points, and both squads are in the top 10 in pace. There should be a boatload of possessions. When these two played Tuesday, DiVincenzo scored 12 points on 14 shots. Our model has DiVincenzo putting up 12.4 points tonight.
The result of Tuesday's clash was a 124-113 Raptors win. But Milwaukee won the first matchup this season 115-108, and the Bucks won five of the previous seven contests between these two over the past two seasons.
Kyle Kuzma Under 7.5 Rebounds (-132)
Kyle Kuzma should see a boost in production across the board with Anthony Davis sidelined, and tonight's game against the Brooklyn Nets is a pace-up spot for the Los Angeles Lakers. But Kuzma's rebounding prop is too high, per our projections.
Kuzma is averaging only 6.0 boards on the year, and he's gone for eight-plus rebounds just 6 times in his last 14 outings. Sans Davis on Tuesday, Kuzma snagged only four rebounds while playing 26 minutes, which is just a tick above his season average of 25 minutes per night.
Per NBAWowy, Kuzma's total rebound rate this season goes up just 0.9 percentage points with Davis off the floor across a sample of 422 minutes. While the Nets' defense is horrific, they've actually allowed the ninth-fewest opponent rebounds per game in 2020-21.
Our algorithm projects Kuzma for only 5.2 rebounds. Even at a -130 line, there's solid value here.
Buddy Hield Over 4.5 Made Threes (+122)
Tonight's matchup with the Miami Heat -- who are on the second leg of a back-to-back -- is a pretty great one for sharpshooter Buddy Hield. Miami has allowed the 2nd-most three-point attempts per game (40.9), and opponents are hitting those tries at 37.1% clip, the 13th-highest. A whopping 46.5% of the shots Miami allows are three-pointers, which is the second-highest rate in the NBA.
Buddy isn't shy about shooting from deep, hoisting at least eight shots from beyond the arc in 11 straight outings, including 6 games of 10-plus three-point attempts. He's made five-plus threes in 6 of those 11 games, including a 6-for-13 three-point performance in a game versus these Heat back on January 30th.
If you want, you can pair Hield to make four-plus triples with a Sacramento Kings win for a +210 payout in another player performance double. In the aforementioned game a couple weeks back, Miami won by one, and the Heat are 1.0-point road favorites tonight. But our model has Sacramento winning 59.7% of the time as the Kings are one spot in front of Miami in our nERD-based power rankings.
