NBA Betting Guide for 1/12/21: Finding Value in Home Underdogs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets
We're scarce on options tonight, and you should never get action just for the sake of it. However, numberFire's algorithm does identify some significant value, so let's dive into where we can find it.
Right here, for one.
On the under, mind you. So far this season, 55.2% of games have hit the under on the closing line at FanDuel Sportsbook. numberFire's algorithm sees a few more of those tonight. The posted total for this game is 230.5, but our median projection for it is 219.7. My model puts the expected point total at 221.1 points.
Per numberFire's algorithm, the under is 70.5% likely (my model has it at 72.3%). numberFire, then, rates it as a four-star bet out of five.
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
numberFire's algorithm is honing in on this game, too. It pegs the Houston Rockets as values. Houston +4.5 points is a three-star bet out of five, as is their moneyline at +164. Actually, the median outcome of this one is a 113.9-113.2 win for the Rockets, per numberFire.
This goes against the public betting data, all of which favors the Los Angeles Lakers to win and cover. The estimated net ratings so far this season pit the Lakers at +8.3 and the Rockets at +2.5, a differential of 5.8 points over 100 possessions. As that spread would indicate the Lakers -4.5 is the better back (my model projects around 106.8 possessions in this game).
Still, it's a value spot, according to our model.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Here's a similar spot to the Rockets game where numberFire's algorithm just straight up prefers the home underdog.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5-point underdogs, but they won 71.3% of the simulated games, per our model. They did it by an average of 6.0 points, too.
The 71.3% probability implies win odds of a -248 moneyline, but you can bet it at +118 at FanDuel Sportsbook. My simulations are less bullish on the Thunder but still view them as 62.6% likely to win (implying odds of -167).
This also goes against the public betting data, with the tickets and money favoring the Spurs. San Antonio is the better team by estimated net rating (-3.2 to -3.9), but that's not a big enough gap to ensure a 2.5-point cover. The long-term data prefers the home side here.
