3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 1/4/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Monday's slate is on the larger size with nine games, so it should offer plenty of opportunities to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Trae Young ($9,400) - Tonight's slate is absolutely loaded at the point guard position. You potentially have Luka Doncic (pending injury news) in the nuts matchup against the Houston Rockets. You have John Wall and his 32% usage rate with James Harden banged up and only $8,500. You have box-score chasers who will go after Stephen Curry's 62-point explosion from last night. You have Ben Simmons against the Charlotte Hornets, who allow the most assists and third-most steals to point guards.

And then you have Trae Young. Against a New York Knicks team that is bottom six in pace and ranks eighth in defensive rating, this game might could go overlooked for Young. The Knicks -- beyond giving up over 23 actual points per game to opposing point guards -- rank bottom 10 in rebounds, assists, and three-pointers allowed, plus they force the third-fewest turnovers to the position. Young averages four turnovers per game (fourth-most among point guards), so those extra positions should be beneficial for a player with a 32% usage rate.

As usual, Young is dominating the competition in the young season. He has reached 39 FanDuel points in all but one game and is up to 1.37 FanDuel points per minute -- a top-five number among all guards on the slate tonight.

Forward

Aaron Gordon ($6,400) - Gordon's 2021 season can be analyzed in one simple stat: minutes. When Gordon plays at least 26 minutes per night, he averages 33.4 FanDuel points per game (or 5.25x his salary tonight). When he does not reach that threshold, he averages 16.8 FanDuel points per game.

In his three games where he did not reach 26 minutes, the average margin of victory in the game was 14 points. In the three games where he did reach 26 minutes, the margin of victory in those games was just eight points. That bodes well for tonight, as the Orlando Magic are just 5.5-point favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers, so the Magic should need Gordon to play a full allotment of minutes.

The Cavaliers without Kevin Love have been quite bad this year against power forwards. They allow top-10 fantasy production in points, assists, three-pointers, and steals per game, as well as allowing 46 FanDuel points per game to the position (one of the 10 highest in the league). Deploy Gordon with full confidence tonight in a game that is likely to go overlooked by DFS managers.

Center

James Wiseman ($4,600) - The matchup tonight between the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings is a DFS player's dream. It has everything -- a high total (232), low spread (Golden State is a -2.5 favorite), fast pace (Warriors rank second in pace this season), lackluster defense (both teams are bottom 12 in defensive rating), and loads of stars in the upper- and mid-range salary levels.

While it will be important to get some exposure to this game, you don't have to chase Curry's career night from Sunday or the hot streak from De'Aaron Fox (45 FanDuel points per game in his last three). Richaun Holmes has the potential to be quite chalky at just a $6,300 salary (same as Chris Boucher and Mason Plumlee, for context) because the Warriors have the third-worst rebound rate in the league and are in the bottom 10 with 56 FanDuel points allowed per game to centers.

Wiseman looks to be a smart addition to lineups that are paying up elsewhere for stars or in game stacks for this intriguing contest. Coming off his first double-double of his young NBA career, Wiseman has now tallied at least 30 FanDuel points in three of six games. A game where he reaches 7x his salary is completely within the range of outcomes against a Kings squad that has the fifth-highest field goal percentage allowed, gives up the second-most blocks per game, and allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to centers this season.