NBA Betting Guide: Friday 9/25/20

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Celtics Moneyline (-146): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Boston Celtics are shooting 47.4% from the floor in the Eastern Conference Finals, 4.1 percentage points higher than the Miami Heat. While Boston's shooting has been better, much of the rest of their game has not. The team is averaging 15.8 turnovers per game, 2.0 more than their regular season average and a whopping 5.3 more than the Heat, whose 10.5 per game are 4.4 lower than their regular season average.

The Celtics are also fouling 3.5 more times per game than the Heat. NBA teams won just 39.5% of their games this season when committing at least three more fouls than their opponents. It's thus not too shocking to see the Celtics down 3-1 in the series and on the verge of heading home.

But our models give them a 61.2% chance of extending the series with a win tonight.

The Celtics are 9-1 this season after losing three of their previous four games, which includes their one win against the Heat in this series. They're outscoring their opponents by an average of 12.6 points in those contests. This year's playoff teams collectively have a winning record (19-18) in such situations.

Boston is a 3.5-point favorite this evening. They're 38-10 this season when favored by more than three points. They're 5-1 this postseason when favored by more than three, including their one win in this series. The Heat are 9-12 this year as underdogs of more than three points. Of those games, they're 6-11 when coming off a win.

numberFire's models see the Celtics winning tonight, projecting them for a 3.0-point win over the Heat. With an expected return of $103.10 for every $100 wagered, we have this moneyline bet as a one-star play.