College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/25/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Middle Tennessee State vs UTSA

MTSU +6.5: 4 Stars out of 5

MTSU to win +210: 3 Stars out of 5

MTSU is off to a brutal start, as they lost in blowout fashion to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). While the 0-2 start is not ideal, the Blue Raiders can take some solace in the fact that they started similarly poorly last season, losing all three of their non conference FBS games by 19 points or more. And then when conference play started, MTSU improved and finished the year 3-5 in conference play. That's nothing extraordinary, but there is some precedent for potential improvement.

UTSA has had the opposite start at 2-0, but those wins have come against Stephen F Austin (went 3-9 as an FCS school last season) and Texas State (3-9 last year at the FBS level). Neither win was particularly convincing, as they needed double-overtime to defeat Texas State and beat lowly Stephen F Austin by only two scores.

Our models like MTSU to win this game outright, giving them a slight edge with a 51% win probability. We also give MTSU a 69.48% chance to cover, so both MTSU +6.5 and MTSU on the moneyline provide enticing betting opportunities.

Over 60.5 Points: 2 Stars out of 5

MTSU’s defense has looked horrendous through their first two games, but there is hope that at least their offense should improve during conference play. Blue Raiders’ quarterback Asher O’Hara is coming off a sophomore season in which he had an impressive 143.2 passer rating. Through two games this season, he is at 86.5 passer rating, but his track record shows he has a great chance to improve on that moving forward.

On the other side, UTSA played a shootout in their only matchup against an FBS opponent, winning 51-48 in double-overtime against Texas State. Our models give the over a 57.97% chance of hitting, making this a two-star bet.