NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/3/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Lou Williams, Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-160)
Lou Williams has a favorable matchup heading into the Western Conference semifinals versus Denver. The Clippers had three days to rest while the Nuggets played a full-48 minute slugfest of a Game 7 on Tuesday.
Denver's three-point defense -- outside of Game 7 -- has been very questionable in the bubble. Denver is allowing 15.7 made threes per game (fourth-most) during the postseason on an average of 37.3 attempts. That equals a percentage of 42.1% for the Nuggets' opponents, the second-worst among playoff teams, and if this were the regular season, that would eclipse the Warriors' last-ranked percentage (38.9%). Versus Denver this season, Williams has averaged 22.0 points per game in three meetings on 52.4% shooting from the field and 47.6% from deep. In the first round versus Dallas, Williams averaged 16 points, shooting 47.4% from the field but 28.6% from deep.
The good news is, he played only 39 total minutes the past two games, meaning he's well-rested, and when he's had off three days or more, Williams has averaged 21.6 points, and 2.4 made threes on 5.7 attempts (42.5%) this season. When Williams surpassed 26 minutes in the first round, he averaged 20.5 points, and 2.0 made three-pointers on 4.7 attempts. When he played 30 to 39 minutes this season, he is averaging 21.3 points and 2.3 three-pointers made per game.
numberFire's model projects Williams to go for 1.5 made three-pointers tonight.
Marcus Smart, Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-122)
Marcus Smart has averaged 20.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game in this series, quickly hitting his overs both games. He averaged just 6.3 points, 3.3 assists, and 2.0 rebounds during the regular season, but he came off the bench in all three meetings. When he's started this year, Smart has averaged 14.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds in 40 games. When he eclipses 30 minutes of action (40 games), he averages 13.7 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.2 rebounds.
The Boston Celtics have the chance to go up 3-0 in this series, and if anyone is going to bring energy and intensity to accomplish that, it's Smart. He's surpassed 30 minutes in all six postseason games, and since entering the starting lineup for Gordon Hayward, he's averaged 14.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in five games.
numberFire's model predicts Smart to record 13.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds, hitting the over on this line (23.3 PRA).