3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/10/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jimmy Butler, Over 4.5 Assists (-156)
The matchup between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers will feature intriguing matchups, starting with the red-hot T.J. Warren going against Jimmy Butler. Butler has been out with a foot injury and missed the Heat's last three games but is expected back for today's game. Miami will also be without point guard Kendrick Nunn, meaning Butler could be tasked with point guard duties at times versus Indiana.
In two meetings with Indiana this season, Butler averaged 6.5 assists per game, recording six and seven in those meetings, respectively. Over Butler's two bubble performances, he's totaled five and seven assists, and for the season, he ranks 21st overall with 6.1 dishes per game. In 10 games this season when he's had three or more days off, Butler has averaged 6.5 assists per game -- he's had almost a full week off since Monday, Aug. 3.
Butler has played 30 minutes or more in both his first two seeding games and is expected to surpass that total in his first game, according to numberFire's model, which has him reaching 6.2 assists in 34 minutes. When he plays between 30-39 minutes, he averages 5.9 assists per game this season. With all that rest, expect Butler to bring some energy to this team as they look to avoid losing three straight. Back the over on assists here.
Deandre Ayton, Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
Deandre Ayton may be on the brink of a breakout game here versus the Oklahoma City Thunder with their frontcourt limited. The Thunder will be without Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Danilo Gallinari, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In five bubble games, Ayton has averaged 20.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game for the 5-0 Phoenix Suns.
Ayton struggled with foul trouble versus the Mavericks last Sunday, playing only 21 minutes, and in the other four, he averaged 21.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 36 minutes. Ayton has played between 30-39 minutes in 22-of-30 games this season, totaling 19.2 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in those contests.
numberFire's model predicts Ayton to post 18.4 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists versus OKC, barely missing the over. But given all of Oklahoma City's inactives, I like the over here.
Anthony Davis, Over 22.5 Points (-122)
Arguably, the most player impactful scorer on the Los Angeles Lakers, when his shot is falling, is Anthony Davis. Of course, LeBron James is impactful too, but he's done it passing, allowing Davis to roam free in the offense. In Davis' last three games, he has struggled from the field, shooting under 30% in three of them. Davis has done most of his damage from the free-throw line, going 49-of-56 (87.5%) in six seeding games.
Luckily for Davis, he faces a team that he's dominated this season, the Denver Nuggets. In three games versus the Nuggets, Davis has averaged 30 points per game on 53.1% from the field, 38.5% from deep, and 70.8% from the free-throw line. He scored 25, 32, and 33 points versus Denver, respectively, and he shot better than 50% from the field in all three.
numberFire's model pegs Davis with 26.3 points, comfortably hitting the over.