Updated NBA Championship Odds: Bubble Edition
The NBA has been back for nearly a week, which means it's a good time to check in on our championship odds.
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update, which took place nearly five months ago.
Here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement since right before the league suspended play.
FanDuel Title Odds: +240
numberFire Champs Probability: 50.2%
A silver lining amidst all the nightmares that this pandemic has brought on is the fact that it allowed soon-to-be two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to fully heal from a lingering knee issue. So while the Milwaukee Bucks lost out on home-court advantage throughout the entirety of the postseason, they at least have that to hang their hat on.
All Giannis has done in two games since the restart is average 36.0 points, 16.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists while shooting 62.2% from the field. If the MVP wasn't in his bag before (it was), it certainly is now.
The Bucks, meanwhile, won that first game -- a matchup with the always-tough Boston Celtics, and lost the second game in the 48th minute to a surging Houston Rockets team. They did that without the services of point guard Eric Bledsoe, an elite defender at the position.
On the season, the Deer are first in net rating...by a whopping 3.7 points. Milwaukee is also first in defensive rating, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, points per game, opponent effective field goal percentage, and opponent points in the paint. Additionally, they're top-eight in offensive rating, true shooting percentage, assists, blocks, fast-break points, points in the paint, and opponent second-chance points. In short, they're pretty damn good.
Given that +240 implies 29.4% odds, our 50.2% probability makes Milwaukee a fantastic bet.
Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Title Odds: +320
numberFire Champs Probability: 7.7%
Prior to the suspension of play, the Los Angeles Clippers had plenty of moments where they looked like a top-tier championship contender. Yet, consistency remains an issue. In between some impressive 2020 victories, Los Angeles has had losses at the hands of the Kings (twice), Timberwolves, and Memphis Grizzlies, amongst others.
All that said, the Clips experienced the second-biggest odds bump since early-March, going from 5.6% probability to 7.7%. Doc Rivers' squad is top-five in offensive rating, defensive rating, rebounding percentage, and opponent effective field goal percentage.
If they can get it all together for a consistent stretch of games, the Clippers have the talent to be a force in the playoffs. The catch is that they'll have to get through some extremely tough teams in the West, followed by whoever comes out of the East.
FanDuel's +320 odds carry 23.8% implied odds. I'd pass on that.
FanDuel Title Odds: +3300
numberFire Champs Probability: 0.8%
At one point owning a record of 32-13, the Utah Jazz are just 10-12 over their last 22 contests. The defense that looked elite to begin the season is now outside the top-10 in defensive rating.
According to our models, Utah's championship odds dropped from a respectable 2.6% in March to just 0.8% now.
Even at +3300, the Jazz are not worth a bet in the ever-so-tough Western Conference.