NBA Odds Update: When Kingdoms Collide
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. Here's a look at three of the teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Los Angeles Lakers
FanDuel Title Odds: +270
numberFire Champs Probability: 20.2%
The beginning of March has certainly been kind to the Los Angeles Lakers. Since March 1st, the Lakers have beaten the New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Los Angeles Clippers. Not too shabby.
Los Angeles has now won 11 of their last 12 and are just two games behind the Bucks in the loss column for home-court throughout the entire playoffs.
Using a huge sample size of...two games, you'd see that the Lakers posted a league-best defensive rating of 96.3. That matters because they did face off against two of the three best teams in the Association.
FanDuel Title Odds: +240
numberFire Champs Probability: 39.4
As one kingdom rises, another falls...or something.
According to our model, Milwaukee's odds to win the title dropped from 45.6% to 39.4% -- by far the biggest drop of the week. The Deer dropped three games in a seven-day stretch for the first time since the 2017-18 season -- that's spanning more than 150 games and two calendar years.
Of course, the caveat here is that the third of those defeats came without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, but a loss is still a loss. With the Bucks facing the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Miami Heat in three of their next four contests, it'll be an uphill battle for them to hang on to home court throughout -- especially without Giannis in the mix for at least one, if not multiple games.
All that said, one rough stretch doesn't change Milwaukee's outlook by a drastic margin. If anything, it made a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers all the more exciting.
Wait for the Bucks to drop another game or two without Antetokounmpo, and then pounce on their depressed odds -- if that happens.
FanDuel Title Odds: +1200
numberFire Champs Probability: 2.3%
Last week, I wrote about how the Houston Rockets might be worth a title bet based on their impressive play. They proceeded to lose each of their next four, including beatdowns by the New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, and Orlando Magic.
Foot, meet mouth.
Part of Houston's struggles can be attributed to James Harden's abysmal play.
The Rockets are 1-4 since these comments, including losses to the Magic, Hornets, and Knicks.
In those games, Harden is shooting 31.7% from the field and 20.3% from three while turning it over 5.2 times per game.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) March 9, 2020
Harden's shooting woes have resulted in the Rockets posting the second-worst effective field goal percentage and fifth-worst offensive efficiency throughout the week. That's in addition to the third-lowest rebounding percentage, fourth-lowest assist ratio, and seventh-worst defensive rating.
Mike D'Antoni's squad is now just a game out of seventh place and a first-round matchup with the Clippers.