FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 11/25/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|LA Lakers||San Antonio||223.0||+5.0||114.0||109.0||19||14|
|Oklahoma City||Golden State||212.5||+6.0||109.25||103.25||26||11|
Tonight's slate is massive, so there's bound to be plenty of value by the time tip-off comes around. Two games look like DFS duds (the two with the lowest over/unders), and four are a cut above the rest -- with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Atlanta Hawks standing out as the game of the night).
Brad Wanamaker ($4,000) and Marcus Smart ($6,400) get significant upgrades with Kemba Walker doubtful after a scary injury over the weekend. Both guys are just shy of a 17.0% usage rate without Walker and Gordon Hayward, and they average decent per-minute FanDuel production (0.95 for Wanamaker and 0.89 for Smart). Wanamaker is numberFire's second-best value play of the night, and he's first in my model.
Ky Bowman ($4,600) is another cheap point guard we can look to, despite a subpar matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who present a pace-down matchup for Bowman, who has averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute this year.
Trae Young ($9,700) is worthy of stud consideration in the game of the night against the Timberwolves. Young's 32.6% usage rate ranks him sixth in the NBA. On the flip side of that game, we have Jeff Teague ($6,100). Teague puts up a more-than-respectable 1.02 FanDuel points per minute and should see extra possessions against the Hawks.
Core Plays: Brad Wanamaker, Ky Bowman, Trae Young
Secondary Plays: Marcus Smart, Jeff Teague, Darius Garland ($3,900)
Tournament Plays: Damian Lillard ($9,500), Collin Sexton ($5,400), Markelle Fultz ($5,000)
Shooting guard is less appealing than point guard is, and some of the preferred plays are a bit spendy.
Fred VanVleet ($7,700) is a productive player, generating 0.99 FanDuel points per minute, on average. VanVleet is in a bottom-three game in terms of over/under, but he projects for minutes in the upper 30s. That makes him a high-floor play. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,000) is in a game with a low total, too, though the possessions should be elevated against the Golden State Warriors. He ranks third in tournament value in my model.
Langston Galloway ($4,200) is set for 33 minutes based on numberFire's projections. He is very much shooting reliant, but he has double-digit shot attempts in six of seven games.
Core Plays: Spencer Dinwiddie, Fred VanVleet, Langston Galloway
Secondary Plays: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeAndre Bembry ($4,600), Dennis Schroder ($5,400)
Tournament Plays: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,800), Tyler Herro ($4,800), Duncan Robinson ($4,200)
Neither Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500) nor LeBron James ($11,400) have overly appealing matchups against the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs, respectively, but the totals are still in the top four. There's no reason to fault you for playing either, but they won't be priorities given their prices and the matchups.
Jaylen Brown ($7,100) has a 25.2% usage rate without Walker and Hayward on the floor this year. He's part of the game with the night's lowest total, but he can pay off his modest tag, regardless.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,100) is up in pace against the Warriors' 30th-ranked defense. He averages 0.95 FanDuel points per minute and rates second in tournament value in my model. Brown is first. On the other side of this game, we have Alec Burks ($5,900) and Glenn Robinson III ($4,700) who are still viable in what should be 30-plus minutes for each.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,800) and Cam Reddish ($4,100) actually rate out first and second, respectively, in my adjusted value projections, and they're in good games to target for DFS. Jarrett Culver ($4,000) is cheap and in the game of the night. He puts up 0.76 FanDuel points per minute, yet the Hawks are just 27th in defensive rating.
Core Plays: Jaylen Brown, Danilo Gallinari, Alec Burks
Secondary Plays: LeBron James, Glenn Robinson, Carmelo Anthony
Tournament Plays: Cam Reddish, Jarrett Culver, De'Andre Hunter ($5,500)
Omari Spellman ($3,700) rates out first in my model -- and numberFire's. The algorithms at numberFire project him for 5.99 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary as a median projection. It's impossible to hate that projected outcome in 22 minutes. Especially if Draymond Green ($6,800) sits, then Spellman, Eric Paschall ($6,00), and the other Warriors get a boost.
The Sacramento Kings' duo of Richaun Holmes ($6,400) and Nemanja Bjelica ($5,600) rank top-three for me tonight on a per-dollar basis in a spot against the Boston Celtics. This is in spite of being in the lowest-totaled game of the night. Each should get around 30 minutes apiece with Bogdan Bogdanovic dealing with hamstring tightness. The minutes floor makes up for the game environment.
Bumping back up toward the top, Blake Griffin ($7,300) is cheap for his role of around 30 minutes with 15-plus shots in his past three games. He is shooting just 40.3%, so the 32.0% usage rate hasn't been all it could be.
Jayson Tatum ($8,200) leads the Celtics with a 34.8% usage rate and a per-minute average of 1.23 FanDuel points without Walker and Hayward. Again, even with the poor game script, Tatum's workload should be heavy against the Kings.
Core Plays: Jayson Tatum, Blake Griffin, Omari Spellman
Secondary Plays: Richaun Holmes, Nemanja Bjelica, Eric Paschall
Tournament Plays: Draymond Green, Domantas Sabonis ($8,900), Bam Adebayo ($8,800), Jabari Parker ($6,900)
Jakob Poeltl ($3,900) and Damian Jones ($3,900) pop at the top of my model today at cheap salaries, primarily Poeltl. Poeltl has played at least 24 minutes in three straight games and averages 1.04 FanDuel points per minute on the year. He's a good bet to pay off his salary. Jones is less bankable but is in that game of the night against the Timberwolves' mid-level defense.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,700) would see a bump without Draymond Green, so the Warriors have a lot of potential value, depending on Green's status.
My model loves Hassan Whiteside ($8,100) against the NBA's 26th-ranked rebounding squad. Whiteside had missed two games with a hip injury, so keep your eyes peeled for news on a minutes cap.
Andre Drummond ($9,800) and Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,000) round out the top-six in my projections. Drummond is projected for nearly 5.0 FanDuel points per $1,000 by numberFire's model. Carter's minutes have yo-yoed between 25 and 34 minutes over his past five games. He's in one of the four best games of the night, so he deserves consideration and ranks fifth in tournament value in my model.
Core Plays: Jakob Poeltl, Willie Cauley-Stein, Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays: Damian Jones, Wendell Carter Jr., Steven Adams ($5,600)
Tournament Plays: Hassan Whiteside, Joel Embiid ($10,200), Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,600)